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Manufacturing activity fell slightly in the Tenth District in November, while expectations for future activity rose. The Tenth Federal Reserve District encompasses the western third of Missouri; all of Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Wyoming; and the northern half of New Mexico. The month-over-month decline in activity was driven primarily by nondurable goods falling modestly, particularly paper and petroleum products, while durable goods activity was flat. All month-over-month indexes were mixed, with half slightly negative and half slightly positive.

Both production and new orders fell slightly, while employment stayed steady. Backlog of orders continues to have the lowest reading at -14. The year-over-year composite index for factory activity fell, as employment, supplier delivery time and raw material inventories all fell further. On the other hand, new orders and capital expenditures improved year-over-year but new orders remained negative. The future composite index increased slightly, driven by high expectations for future production and new orders. Employment and capital expenditures are also expected to grow in the next six months.

This month, survey respondents were asked about employment expectations over the next year. About half of firms (52%) expect to leave employment levels unchanged over the next year, while 37% plan to increase employment and 11% expect to decrease. Firms were also asked if they’ve been raising starting wages for new hires. About a quarter of firms (23%) have raised new hires’ wages for most job categories, while 35% have for only select job categories. About another quarter (24%) have not raised new hires’ wages, while 18% of firms surveyed are not actively hiring.

In November, Philadelphia’s regional manufacturing activity softened overall. The index for current general business activity turned negative, falling from 10.3 to -5.5. More than 17% of firms reported increased activity this month, while slightly more than 23% reported decreases and more than 58% reported no change. The indexes for new orders and shipments also decreased but stayed positive. On the other hand, firms reported an increase in employment after reporting mostly steady job gains last month, with the employment index returning to positive territory at 8.6.

Both price indexes edged down but continue to indicate overall increases in prices. The prices paid index declined from 29.7 to 26.6 but remains at an elevated level that reflects the notable portion of firms experiencing higher input costs. The prices received index also fell and remained significantly lower than the prices paid index at 14.3, exhibiting how manufacturers are eating a sizable portion of those higher costs paid.

Looking ahead, most future indicators increased. The index for future general business activity rose markedly to 56.6, indicating growing optimism among firms. A higher proportion of firms still expected increases in activity. Additionally, the future new orders, shipments, capital expenditures and employment indexes also rose. On a more negative note, the future prices paid index increased markedly, but the future prices received rose.

“$80 billion is given away every year in state and local incentives,” according to Atlas Insight Managing Partner Brian Corde. “Plus, the Biden administration has added $455 billion just in federal grants.”

In this investment landscape, manufacturers need all the help they can get finding, applying for and complying with these incentive programs. Atlas Insight, the 51�Թ���’s partner for its , walks companies through this entire complicated process.

Last week, we talked to Corde and Kathy Mussio, Atlas’s other managing partner, about how companies select their new sites. This week, we’ve asked them what manufacturers need to know about incentives.

How do incentives work? Incentives come in two forms, Corde and Mussio explained. First is the type you automatically qualify for if you meet the requirements, known as statutory or as-of-right incentives.

• The second is the type that Atlas lends its expertise to—discretionary incentives. These programs offer funds and other pools of money that require business cases, negotiation, applications, and later, proof that a company has met its stated obligations (also known as compliance).
• These programs can take many forms. As Mussio put it, “Some states have programs that offer cash to help close the financial gap between two competing locations or increase a project’s ROI—helping to make a location more competitive in the financial analysis.”
• There are many, many incentives out there, the Atlas partners told us, and the most important steps are understanding which ones a company may be eligible for and helping clients quantify the potential savings.

What if you’re staying put? These incentives aren’t just for new facilities, Corde and Mussio emphasized. “A majority of incentives are given to companies staying in place,” Corde added.

• Companies can take a lot of actions to qualify for incentives—expand their workforces, buy new equipment, train workers in new technologies or add square footage for new production lines.
• “It’s our job to help 51�Թ��� members identify their projects that could use incentives. Then we benchmark the incentives, then negotiate on the companies’ behalf, then lock the incentives down with the state or city,” Corde said.

What’s benchmarking? Atlas compares incentive offers from states and localities with the incentives awards that similar companies have received in the past, another way to help ensure that their clients get the best possible deals. There’s always room for negotiation, the partners say.

• Atlas keeps two databases: the first, a listing of all the incentives that exist on the federal, state and local levels, along with all the necessary forms, key contacts and any other requirements. The second database is a list of what other companies have received for similar types of projects.
• This allows Atlas to identify the typical dollar range that an incentive should provide—so a company knows whether it has been offered a good deal, and whether it should negotiate, or even go elsewhere.

How do you get the money? After companies successfully secure an incentive award, they must follow compliance schedules to ensure they keep receiving the funds as project milestones are met, while also retaining documentation in case of audit.

• The government offering the incentive typically requires filings to verify how many employees were hired, the wages they earned, even the employers’ contributions to health insurance premiums.

A lot to lose: “We are being conservative when we say that 50% of incentives awarded never pay out,” Corde said, all because companies fail to fulfill compliance requirements.

How can Atlas help? Atlas creates a “holistic incentive management for its clients, for the entire life of the incentive,” so that companies actually receive their money, the partners explained. It even helps with old incentives that remain incompletely documented.

• “When we retained Atlas, it enabled us to bring several one-off incentive agreements around the U.S. into a centralized process,” said a Schneider Electric spokesperson. “That made it so much easier for us to document our part of the expansion agreements and collect the incentives we were owed. Plus, their performance-based fee for this process has been best in class.”

How to get started: The is a service for 51�Թ��� members, which provides a complimentary initial assessment call and preferred rates on contracted services, including an exclusive success-based fee schedule.

• Atlas is often “only paid for successful outcomes, either a confirmation letter or when the company receives the money over time. We will help you be successful and then benefit once you are,” said Corde.

The bottom line: “You need to have a strategy to go after these incentives, because your competitors are.”

The North American trade landscape will look different once President-elect Trump takes office, 51�Թ��� President and CEO Jay Timmons this week—but “the special relationship” between the U.S. and Canada will only grow stronger.

What’s going on: “President Trump has been very clear about his priorities, his commitments,” Timmons said Wednesday in Ottawa on CBC News’ “Power & Politics,” where he was joined by Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters President and CEO Dennis Darby. Timmons was in Canada for this year’s North American Manufacturing Conference, hosted primarily by the CME.

• “[E]veryone in the business community and in adjoining governments need to be approaching the administration change with very clear eyes [because] … what Donald Trump says, Donald Trump means. Now, having said that, Donald Trump wants to see manufacturing in the United States grow and thrive.”
• Part of that prosperity will be continuing and strengthening United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement, which “has demonstrated that the regional economic activity that has been generated has been beneficial for all three countries,” Timmons continued.

On Mexico: “[W]e all should be concerned if the letter and the spirit of the agreement [of USMCA] are not being followed,” Timmons told “Power & Politics” host David Cochrane. While Mexican President Sheinbaum “has indicated that she wants to make sure that the agreement is ratified for the future,” the proposed constitutional amendments “have … [been] problematic for the United States.”

• Mexico has also had “some issues with takings of private property of American manufacturers,” Timmons added. “Those things can’t stand, so those are issues that will have to be addressed as the [USMCA] review process occurs in 2026, but hopefully the new administration in Mexico will address those things before then.”

Tariffs: Any tariffs imposed by the incoming Trump administration should be calibrated, said Timmons, whose visit to Canada also included meetings with Canadian Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon and Energy and Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson.

• Tariffs should address “who’s causing the disruption, who’s causing the problem [and] … the policy that is causing the issue,” Timmons said. “And you need to really go right after that. Otherwise, [tariffs] are not going to be effective.”

“A manufacturing revival”: A respected, fully upheld USMCA is just one piece of the foundation that will usher in a new age of North American manufacturing, Timmons concluded.

• “[S]trengthening the manufacturing sector in the United States … [is] not just about trade,” he said. “In order to attract investment in the United States, we have to have the right tax policy, the right regulatory policies, the right workforce policies, the right energy policies, and the president-elect seems to be focused on all of those areas as well.”
• “So I feel pretty good about a manufacturing a continued manufacturing revival and renaissance in the United States. I think that’s good for the whole region.”

Lucid has already made one of the most energy-efficient cars on the market. Now the company is on a mission to strengthen supply chains for the critical materials powering its award-winning vehicles.

Supply chain warrior: The California-based electric vehicle manufacturer—whose 2025 Air Pure sedan is the first EV to achieve a milestone 5 miles of range per kilowatt of energy—recently reached an agreement with Alaskan mining exploration company Graphite One to purchase synthetic graphite for its vehicles’ battery packs.

• The deal, which goes into effect in 2028, is a crucial first step toward cementing a domestic supply chain of graphite, a mineral that makes up about half of every EV’s battery composition. EV batteries require both synthetic and natural graphite.
• “Today 100% of the graphite for batteries assembled in the U.S. comes from overseas,” said Lucid Motors Supply Chain Group Manager of Battery Raw Materials Michael Parton. “Building a robust domestic supply chain ensures the United States and Lucid will maintain technology leadership in this global race.”

Pandemic lesson: The global pandemic revealed the downside of depending on other nations for critical materials, and the importance of cultivating domestic sources instead.

• In 2020, “every company experienced major challenges when it came to shutdowns and global trade,” Parton said. “Having a domestic supply reduces production risk, accelerates response time and agility and lowers the need to carry higher levels of inventory.”

A midstream gap: When it comes to EV batteries and their supply chains, “much of the discussion is on localizing the bookends of the supply chain, the downstream battery production and the upstream mineral extraction,” Parton told us.

• Less discussed is the “midstream environment,” which comprises the precursor cathode active materials (P-CAM) and cathode active materials (CAM) stages. Materials used during these phases in the battery production process include critical minerals such as lithium, nickel and cobalt.
• The P-CAM market has been a difficult one to navigate, Parton added. For years, the P-CAM stage has been outsourced to countries with more cost-effective production. The problem: These countries also have less stringent environmental regulations than the U.S.
• “There’s limited investment announced [in the U.S.] in the refining and chemical conversion process at these stages, but it’s where the real need is,” Parton continued. “To promote localized sources of supply for mined and recycled minerals, there needs to be a domestic option for both P-CAM and CAM.”��

A bipartisan issue: Lucid’s advocacy for a strong domestic supply chain has won bipartisan support in Congress.

• “There’s something in it for everyone when it comes to efficiency,” said Lucid Motors Senior Manager of International and Trade Policy Emily Patt, citing the environmental and self-sufficiency benefits of a resilient domestic supply chain.

What’s next: Lucid is expanding its vehicle lineup beyond the Air and the vehicle’s four trim levels.

• By the end of 2024, the company is scheduled to start production of the seven-passenger Lucid Gravity. The company has also teased an upcoming midsize platform, which is expected to start production in late 2026.

The grand vision: “The pursuit of efficiency drives Lucid as a company,” Patt said. “We’re not just making zero-emission cars; we’re committed to making the best use of the world’s resources to maximize the benefits for electrification and the planet.”

The “30C” tax credit has the potential to spur manufacturing investment, but the Internal Revenue Service and Treasury Department must first clarify some of their proposed rules regarding it, the 51�Թ��� this week.

What’s going on: In September, the IRS and Treasury Department jointly proposed regulations regarding Section 30C of the U.S. tax code’s Alternative Fuel Vehicle Refueling Property Tax Credit, which was changed and expanded by the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.

• “A key purpose of the energy provisions of the IRA was to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and spur manufacturing investments in low emissions and renewable energy sectors,” 51�Թ��� Vice President of Domestic Policy Chris Phalen told the IRS on Monday.
• “Manufacturers make vehicles that use alternative fueling stations, many of our members produce the components … that go into these stations and manufacturers will construct and operate these refueling properties. These companies require certainty and specificity to make final��investment decisions.”

What must be done: To that end, the 51�Թ��� told the agencies the following changes should be made to the proposed regulations for the 30C tax credit:

• Extend the allowed transition period for organizations to update “census tract designations to reflect population data in the years 2016–2020,” as the draft rulemaking mandates that those wishing to take advantage of the 30C credit “must place the property into service within a specific census tract designation.”
• Clarify whether the location of the refueling infrastructure “would need to be made available to the public to qualify for the 30C tax credit.”
• Provide tax credit “eligibility for certain property directly attributable to the operation of alternative fuel vehicle refueling property, such as electrical panels and conduit/wiring, and ask that the agency also consider related��construction and other project costs for eligibility.”

The international tax system put in place by 2017 tax reform bolsters American competitiveness and supports manufacturing in the U.S.—and that’s why its provisions must be preserved, according to a new , part of the 51�Թ���’s ��campaign.

The background: Before passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the U.S. tax code made it more costly and less efficient to invest in the U.S. Corporate profits were taxed at the 35% corporate income tax rate when repatriated to the U.S., forcing businesses to keep revenues abroad.

• Tax reform instituted a new, pro-growth international tax regime that incentivizes companies to locate their operations, intellectual property and profits here in the U.S.

The specifics: Tax reform’s international tax provisions include the following:

• A 21% corporate tax rate: Tax reform reduced the corporate rate from 35% to 21%, making “the U.S. a more attractive home for manufacturing investment.”
• The Foreign-Derived Intangible Income deduction: This deduction “reduces taxes for companies that locate job-creating, export-producing intellectual property in the U.S.”
• The Global Intangible Low-Taxed Income regime: The GILTI regime imposes a U.S. minimum tax on income earned abroad in low-tax jurisdictions.
• The Base Erosion and Anti-Abuse Tax: The BEAT applies to certain payments that shift companies’ profits abroad.

Why it’s important: Globally engaged manufacturers face the possibility of significant tax increases at the end of 2025 as key international tax provisions are scheduled to change.

• The FDII deduction will decrease, while the effective GILTI and BEAT tax rates will both increase—upsetting the balance inherent in the TCJA international tax structure and thus making it more costly and difficult for globally engaged companies to operate here in the U.S.

What’s next: In addition to maintaining or reducing the 21% corporate tax rate, the 51�Թ��� is calling on Congress to prevent the FDII decrease and the GILTI and BEAT tax increases on manufacturers whose success bolsters America’s competitiveness on the world stage.

The last word: “Congress must sustain tax reform’s international tax system, including the lower corporate tax rate, in order to enhance America’s competitiveness and support manufacturers’ efforts to create jobs and grow investment here in the United States,” said 51�Թ��� Vice President of Domestic Policy Charles Crain.

For more than a century, has been a steadfast supporter of military service members. Today, one of the ways Johnson & Johnson fulfills this mission is by partnering with the Manufacturing Institute’s initiative, which connects members of the military community with rewarding careers in manufacturing.

Both Johnson & Johnson and HMA firmly believe that military experience is invaluable for manufacturing careers. Veterans often have advanced problem-solving abilities, leadership skills and a strong work ethic—qualities that are essential in the fast-paced, dynamic environment of manufacturing.

The partnership: Since 2021, Johnson & Johnson has been the official health care sponsor of HMA. With their support, the initiative has continued to expand in-person and virtual training programs and helped more service members transition into rewarding manufacturing careers.

• Johnson & Johnson is a frequent host of facility tours for HMA students, as well as an active participant in . These events provide military members with valuable insights into the manufacturing sector and allow them to connect with potential employers.
• The company also hires HMA graduates itself, employing three so far at its facilities.

Bringing careers into focus: On Nov. 15, Johnson & Johnson hosted 22 HMA participants from Fort Stewart in Georgia at its Vision Care site in Jacksonville, Florida.

• Johnson & Johnson Executive Vice President, Chief Technical Operations & Risk Officer and 51�Թ��� Board Chair Kathy Wengel, MI President and Executive Director Carolyn Lee and 51�Թ��� President and CEO Jay Timmons also joined the tour. (The MI is the workforce development and education affiliate of the 51�Թ���.)
• Wengel, Lee and Timmons participated in group discussions with HMA participants and held a fireside chat where they discussed their careers in manufacturing and Johnson & Johnson’s commitment to military hiring. They also gave advice to the HMA participants about working in the industry.
• “Veterans embody resilience, adaptability and dedication—qualities that are at the heart of manufacturing excellence,” said Wengel. “At Johnson & Johnson, we’re honored to work alongside Heroes MAKE America to support veterans in their transition to civilian careers, providing them with opportunities to build rewarding futures in manufacturing.”

From the MI: “Johnson & Johnson’s partnership has been crucial to our efforts to connect the military community with meaningful career opportunities in manufacturing,” said Lee. “They are an example of what it means to invest in veterans and support their transition into civilian careers.”

Get involved: To learn more about HMA and its incredible pool of talent, attend a or email [email protected].

Manufacturers operate in a world of complex legal and regulatory challenges. In the wake of a national election, with a new administration and Congress on the horizon, those challenges are amplified, as in-house counsel must navigate a rapidly evolving compliance landscape.

The 51�Թ���’s third-annual Manufacturing Legal Summit, held Nov. 12–13 at the Willard InterContinental in Washington, D.C., helped in-house counsel at manufacturing companies map the road ahead. The event brought together nearly 150 such leaders from across the United States to share information and best practices.

The goal: “This is the only legal conference geared specifically for manufacturing lawyers,” said 51�Թ��� Deputy General Counsel for Litigation Erica Klenicki. “What we hear consistently is that the opportunity to connect with others in the industry who are dealing with the same challenges is invaluable. Especially on the brink of a new administration and regulatory environment, we were able to provide connection and content that attendees found particularly helpful.”

The program: The Legal Summit covered a range of topics, including the following:

• Antitrust: A team of experts from Freshfields, including former FTC Commissioner Christine Wilson, joined with Saint-Gobain North America Senior Vice President, General Counsel & Secretary La-Toya Hackney to offer a candid deep dive into enforcement trends from the Biden FTC and what to expect from the new administration.
• Supply chain and ESG: Experts from Foley & Lardner joined Pelican Products Corporate Import/Export Compliance Manager Susan Cass to discuss the growing requirements surrounding supply chain transparency and integrity and best compliance practices for multinational companies.
• PFAS: Industry leaders from Greenberg Traurig provided a comprehensive overview of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, including the changing definition of PFAS, the regulatory landscape and how environmental marketing impacts risk, corporate strategy and consumer trust.
• Junk science: This product liability session offered strategies for combating junk scientific theories used to wage high-stakes litigation. It was led by experts from Shook, Hardy & Bacon, as well as Kimberly-Clark Corporation Associate General Counsel Kelly Vickers and Johnson & Johnson Assistant General Counsel Aviva Wein.
• NLRB: Experts from Fisher Phillips recapped the Biden Board’s sweeping changes to labor law and offered predictions on which changes will remain when the new administration takes the helm.
• Election debrief: 51�Թ��� Managing Vice President of Government Relations Stef Webb offered attendees clarity and context on the 2024 general election, including the political outlook for manufacturers in a Republican-controlled Congress and White House.
• Regulatory law: Panelists from Kennametal, Saint-Gobain and U.S. Steel joined moderator Brendan Collins of Ballard Spahr to talk about recent landmark changes to administrative law and the impact of those decisions on their companies’ approaches to compliance and enforcement.
• AI: Counsel Eran Kahana from Maslon LLP led a thought-provoking discussion on the intersection of generative AI and legal ethics, including the due diligence obligations of in-house counsel as firms adopt this evolving technology.

The reaction: Participants spoke highly of the content and the opportunity for relationship building:

• “This was my first 51�Թ��� Legal Summit, and I could not be more pleased with the topics presented, as well as the networking opportunities,” said Erin Tannock, compliance counsel for Viega LLC. “The content was relevant and current. I even had a few ‘aha’ moments! This event is worth the time, and I will be attending for years to come.”

On Nov. 5th, President-elect Donald Trump secured enough electoral college votes to become the 47th President of the United States. Republicans also flipped four Senate seats, meaning they will have a 53-47 majority entering the 119th Congress, and maintained control of the House though a small number of congressional races remain outstanding. For the first time since 2016, Republicans will have unified control of both Congress and the White House once President-elect Trump is sworn in on Jan. 20, 2025.

For now, as we enter the “lame duck” session of the 118th Congress, there remains a substantial laundry list of items for members to address before adjourning this session. Both the House and Senate return this week for the first time since the October break.

119th Congress Leadership Elections

Upon having control of both chambers next Congress, House and Senate Republicans returned to Washington this week to elect their respective leadership teams and establish their rules packages for the 119th Congress.

House Republican Leadership

• Speaker of the House – Mike Johnson (R-LA)
• House Majority Leader – Steve Scalise (R-LA)
• House Majority Whip – Tom Emmer (R-MN)
• House Republican Conference Chair – Lisa McClain (R-MI)
  Rep. McClain is replacing Elise Stefanik (R-NY) who has been nominated as Ambassador to the United Nations by President-elect Trump.

Senate Republican Leadership

• Senate Majority Leader – John Thune (R-SD)
  Sen. Thune will be taking over as GOP Leader from Mitch McConnell (R-KY), who is stepping down after a record 18 years in the position.
• Senate Majority Whip – John Barrasso (R-WY)
• Conference Chair – Tom Cotton (R-AR)
• Policy Chair – Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV)

House Democratic Leadership

House Democrats have scheduled their leadership elections for Nov. 19th. It is unlikely there are major changes for the current leadership roster.

• House Minority Leader – Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY)
• House Minority Whip – Katherine Clark (D-MA)
• House Democratic Caucus Chairman – Pete Aguilar (D-CA)

Senate Democratic Leadership

Senate Democrats have not currently scheduled their leadership elections, but it is unlikely the top two positions change. There will be an opening for the third ranking position with Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) retiring.

• Minority Leader – Chuck Schumer (D-NY)
• Minority Whip – Dick Durbin (D-IL)
• Chair of Policy and Communications Committee – To be determined
  Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) is retiring from Congress. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and Cory Booker (D-NJ) have signaled their interest in this position.

Lame Duck Legislative Outlook

Congress has roughly five legislative session weeks before the Christmas break and several policy items to address in that time. Upon returning to Washington, policymakers face two must-pass pieces of legislation: the FY 2025 National Defense Authorization Act and a government funding package to prevent a shutdown when current funding runs out at midnight on Dec. 20th. On either NDAA or the government funding package, lawmakers may seek to include some form of disaster relief for victims of the recent hurricanes and an extension of the current Farm Bill.

In the Senate, it is likely that Democratic Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will move to advance as many of President Joe Biden nominees, including judicial appointments, as possible in the remaining weeks before Republicans take control of the confirmation process next year. Finally, the current debt limit suspension expires on Jan. 2, 2025. Congress will have to address the limit, or Treasury will be forced to take “extraordinary measures” to avoid a default in early 2025.

With these remaining weeks, the 51�Թ��� continues to engage and encourage lawmakers to advance manufacturers’ priorities before Congress adjourns for the year.