51�Թ���

The U.S. and Europe are working to address “China’s accelerated push into the production of older-generation semiconductors,” (subscription) reports.

What’s going on: Last year, the U.S. imposed restrictions on the export of certain advanced technologies to China. Beijing has reacted by investing heavily in building facilities making older chips that do not face such U.S. restrictions.

• Legacy chips—those produced using 28-nanometer-and-larger equipment—remain critical in the global economy as components of everything from electric vehicles to military devices.
• China is on track to build 26 semiconductor factories through 2026, while the U.S. is forecast to construct 16 facilities “that use 200-millimeter and 300-mm wafers.”

Why it’s a problem: “Senior EU and U.S. officials are concerned about Beijing’s drive to dominate this market for both economic and security reasons, [sources] said. They worry Chinese companies could dump their legacy chips on global markets in the future, driving foreign rivals out of business…”

• If that were to happen, Western firms could become reliant on China for the chips, the sources say, and that could pose a national security risk.

Importance of legacy chips: The global pandemic demonstrated that older-model semiconductors remain important, as chip shortages hit companies’ bottom lines.

• The U.S. and Europe have been trying to expand their own chip production to avoid a repeat. Efforts have included the 2021 CHIPS and Science Act, which set aside $52 billion to bolster domestic semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S.

​�ċ�ċ�ċ�ċ�ċ�ċA problem to solve: “Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo alluded to the problem during a panel discussion last week at the American Enterprise Institute. ‘The amount of money that China is pouring into subsidizing what will be an excess capacity of mature chips and legacy chips—that’s a problem that we need to be thinking about and working with our allies to get ahead of,’ she said.”

The Department of Energy is loosening proposed energy-efficiency regulations for gas cooktops after reviewing data submitted by one of the 51�Թ���’s trade association partners and a utility company, (subscription) reports.

What’s going on: “In a notice of data availability to be published in Wednesday’s Federal Register, DOE floated less stringent efficiency requirements for gas stoves. The initial proposal called for a consumption limit of 1,204 … British thermal units, or kBtu, per year, down from the baseline estimate of 1,775 kBtu per year. But the new proposal raises those figures slightly. Now DOE is proposing a limit of 1,343 kBtu per year, down from a recalculated baseline of 1,900 kBtu per year.”

• The Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers and PG&E provided the DOE with data on cooktops with higher consumption rates, which the agency had not used in its initial efficiency testing.
• “Other comments led DOE ‘to better understand’ what features consumers want in a gas stove, including multiple high input rate burners and continuous cast-iron grates,” POLITICO reports.

Why it’s important: Manufacturers would be required to spend more than $2.5 billion to comply with the originally proposed rules, according to the DOE’s own estimates. However, consumers would save just 12.5 cents a month in energy costs.

• The mandates would have been so strict as to make 96% of gas stoves on the market .

What Congress has done: In June the House passed the , which would prevent the DOE from advancing its unworkable stove requirements.

What we’re doing: The 51�Թ��� has held high-level discussions with policymakers on the importance of feasibility, affordability and consumer choice in rulemaking.

• To that end, in June the 51�Թ��� and members of the 51�Թ���’s Council of Manufacturing Associations and Conference of State Manufacturers Associations created the , which aims to combat the recent regulatory onslaught by federal agencies.

The 51�Թ��� says: “Manufacturers depend on regulatory clarity and certainty,”  51�Թ��� Managing Vice President of Policy Chris Netram.

• Throughout the year, the Department of Energy has proposed an unprecedented slew of regulations, and many were aimed at home appliances. The DOE is now taking steps toward a solution that is less likely to raise production costs significantly for manufacturers, and less likely to reduce the available features, performance and affordability for consumers.”

As most of the world grapples with inflation, China is facing deflation that could push it into “an economic trap,” according to (subscription).

What’s going on: “Prices charged by Chinese factories that make products ranging from steel to cement to chemicals have been falling for months. Consumer prices, meanwhile, have gone flat, with prices for certain goods—including sugar, eggs, clothes and household appliances—now falling on a month-over-month basis amid weak demand.”

• China’s economy is growing, but slowly, and the government recently announced a series of stimulus programs to help.

Parallels with Japan: While most economists see China avoiding a prolonged recession, some “see alarming parallels between China’s current predicament and the experience of Japan, which struggled for years with deflation and stagnant growth” in the 1990s, following collapses in stock market and real estate value.

• If Japan’s fate were to befall China, the latter would face another hurdle: the usual methods for combating these problems would be either unpopular or toothless “due to the country’s heavy debt load.”

​�ċ�ċ�ċ�ċ�ċ�ċ A mixed bag: A long period of lower prices in China could help bring down inflation elsewhere in the global economy, including the U.S.

• But … “[a] deflationary spell in China would also likely mean weaker Chinese demand for food, energy and raw materials, which big chunks of the world rely on for export earnings.”

Effects of uncertainty: And the longer that prices fall and stay down, the more entrenched deflation becomes—making debts “harder to bear and profits and incomes fall. Companies shed workers to fatten shrinking margins.”
​�ċ�ċ�ċ�ċ�ċ�ċ

Manufacturing job openings inched down in June, data showed, and manufacturers continued to see business challenges in July, according to the .

What’s going on: Open positions in the manufacturing sector declined approximately 4.28%, to 582,000 in June from 608,000 in May. Meanwhile, economic activity in the manufacturing industry declined for the ninth month in a row in July.

• While the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index was 46.4 in July, up from 46.0 in June, any number under 50 indicates contraction.
• In employment, durable goods job openings decreased to 356,000 in June from 379,000 in May. In nondurable goods, openings fell to 226,000 from 229,000 in the same period.

The details: New orders (up to 47.3 from 45.6) and production (up to 48.3 from 46.7) declined more slowly in July, according to the ISM®.

• However, employment fell to 44.4 from 48.1, and exports declined to 46.2 from 47.3.

Hiring: Manufacturing’s net hiring—hires minus separations—in June was 6,000, the same as the pace in May.

• Job openings in the sector remained above pre-pandemic levels.

A new Commerce Department office tasked with dispensing tens of billions of federal funding for domestic semiconductor manufacturing faces a challenging job, according to .

What’s going on: “The experts at the CHIPS program office are charged with enticing the world’s largest chipmakers to the U.S. to fashion cutting-edge semiconductors used in weapons and supercomputers, as well as in more ordinary devices like thermostats. The goal is to break the dependence that many American manufacturers of missiles, spy satellites, telecom gear and medical devices have on suppliers primarily based in Taiwan and South Korea.”

• Congress allocated $52 billion for the effort last year.

Why it’s important: “Deploying taxpayer funds and the federal government’s power puts the department and the CHIPS office in a unique position of executing a novel industrial policy: one focused on both national security as well as economic well-being, and one that is expected to back manufacturing plants as well [as] research and development efforts.”

• In recent decades, the most successful U.S. industrial policy interventions have been similar to this one: funding for “high-risk, high-reward” R&D, according to a Peterson Institute study cited by Roll Call.

Making it count: Sens. Mark Warner (D-VA) and John Cornyn (R-TX) are adamant that the money must be doled out judiciously.

• “This is not an economic proposition,” Sen. Cornyn said. “It’s obviously important from an economic standpoint, but national security is the main reason why Sen. Warner and I undertook the legislation.”

​�ċ�ċ�ċ�ċ�ċ�ċ​​​​​​Keen interest:  The new office has received more than 400 statements of interest from semiconductor manufacturers. Preliminary applications will be accepted starting in September.

• Top chipmakers, including Intel and others, “have indicated they may invest as much as $400 billion in the U.S. provided they get some support from the government.”
• Six expert teams will review the applications and decide on the amounts each firm will receive. National security experts will weigh applications based on companies’ security measures and supply chain resiliency capabilities.

The 51�Թ��� says: “Bolstering domestic chip manufacturing is a security and economic imperative for the U.S.,” 51�Թ��� Director of Domestic Policy Julia Bogue said.

• “That’s why the 51�Թ��� supported passage of the CHIPS and Science Act and continues to advocate for actions that will see the U.S. manufacturing more semiconductors.”

Regulatory inertia on self-driving cars is putting manufacturers in the U.S. at a disadvantage, but Congress can help by expanding automakers’ ability to test and ultimately sell the vehicles, industry advocates said at a House Energy and Commerce Committee hearing Wednesday, according to .

What’s going on: “Currently [automated vehicle] manufacturers can deploy a maximum of 2,500 self-driving vehicles for testing, provided they have permission from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. AV advocates have complained that the limits represent a bottleneck that is holding back the growth of the industry at a crucial time.”

What’s being requested: One of the bills considered during Wednesday’s markup is an updated version of a 2017 measure on AV regulations that passed the House but stalled in the Senate.

• AV advocates point to data that shows reports of accidents involving these cars are exaggerated and the cutting-edge safety technology can be more reliable than human drivers in avoiding crashes.
• The issue of liability in case of an accident, however, remains a major point of contention in legislative progress. “Each one of these [crashes] is still going to be subject to a plaintiff’s lawyer, an insurance company and a defense lawyer,” Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-ND) said. “And until we’ve figured that out, this is just a science project.”

Safety data: An analysis of the first 1 million miles of AV use by Cruise AV—the self-driving vehicle unit of General Motors—showed the cars to have a significantly better safety record than human drivers, CEO Kyle Vogt said on an earnings call this week.

• There were 54% fewer collisions and 92% fewer crashes in which the AV was at fault, Vogt said.

The last word: “The expansion of AVs into our national transportation system is an opportunity to lead by enhancing safety on our roadways, improving transportation mobility and increasing efficient goods movement across our strained supply chains,” said 51�Թ��� Director of Transportation Policy Ben Siegrist.

• “Manufacturers are on the cutting edge of vehicle technology research and development, and improving the federal regulatory landscape is a necessary step to grow the American AV industry into a global economic engine.”

The Senate voted overwhelmingly to create a Nuclear Fuel Security Program aimed at bolstering U.S. supplies of enriched uranium, according to the .

What’s going on: On Thursday, the Senate voted 96–3 to include Sen. John Barrasso’s (R-WY) Nuclear Fuel Security Act amendment in next fiscal year’s National Defense Authorization Act.

• The “[a]mendment … directs the Department of Energy (DOE) to prioritize activities to increase domestic production of low-enriched uranium (LEU) for existing reactors and accelerate efforts to ensure the availability of high-assay, low-enriched uranium (HALEU) for advanced reactors,” according to the committee press release.
• The bipartisan measure was introduced in February by Sens. Barrasso, Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Jim Risch (R-ID); in May, it was passed by voice vote.

Why it’s important: Most of the advanced nuclear reactor concepts set to come online in the next few years require HALEU—and Russia is the only viable commercial supplier, according to E&E News’ (subscription).

• “Russia now supplies 24% of our enriched uranium imports,” Sen. Barrasso said before the committee on Thursday. “We spend nearly $1 billion each year on Russian uranium. Russia uses these revenues to fund its invasion of Ukraine. Here in America, we have the resources to fuel our own reactors. My amendment authorizes the Department of Energy to take the steps necessary to expand U.S. nuclear fuel production.”

​�ċ�ċ�ċ�ċ�ċ�ċThe 51�Թ���’s role: The 51�Թ��� for the development of nuclear energy, which will play a critical role in U.S. energy security and decarbonization efforts.

• As 51�Թ��� President and CEO Jay Timmons told Congress in June, “Nuclear energy can help the U.S. generate more clean energy, stabilize our grids and improve our energy security.”

The Biden administration is hoping offshore wind farms will provide enough power for 10 million homes by the end of this decade—but energy companies are having trouble financing the projects, according to .

What’s going on: “Up and down the Northeast—the center of the burgeoning [wind power] industry … energy companies have struggled to finance their projects, going hat in hand to governors and utility regulators asking for more money so they can start building the turbines they have already promised to deliver.”

• Many consumers concerned about already increasing energy costs are wary of more taxpayer funds going to such projects—but without additional government funds, many current wind projects may not get built at all.

The big picture: “Offshore wind takes a combination of state and federal green lights to work. … Federal, state and local permits all have to be secured to make the projects a reality, which gives opponents numerous chances to stall or kill projects.”

• Thus far, federal regulators have approved just three offshore wind projects nationally—underlining the dire need for , which the 51�Թ��� has long called for.
• Meanwhile, “Only seven offshore wind turbines are producing power and just two of the larger projects are truly under construction,” according to POLITICO.

States struggle: Wind-power projects in New Jersey and Massachusetts are facing financial hurdles, with the costs for one project increasing 30% since approval two years ago.

• Geopolitics and the larger economy have weighed on U.S. wind power, too. “Inflation is up—the cost of steel has soared since the pandemic—interest rates are higher and the labor market is tighter. Paradoxically, the war in Ukraine made clear how important domestic energy is while at the same time driving up the costs to produce it.”

The 51�Թ��� says: “Manufacturers depend on access to reliable and affordable energy, which is why the 51�Թ��� strongly supports reforms that would foster transparent, streamlined and timely federal regulatory processes,” said 51�Թ��� Vice President of Domestic Economic Policy Brandon Farris.

• “Our antiquated permitting system is driving up construction costs and has the potential to reduce energy security. The 51�Թ��� will continue to fight for common-sense permitting reforms that expedite the development of many energy projects, including renewables.”

The International Monetary Fund raised its growth forecast for the international economy on Tuesday despite slowing activity in China, according to .

What’s going on: “In the latest update to its World Economic Outlook, the IMF raised its 2023 global growth prediction by 0.2 percentage points to 3%, up from 2.8% at its April assessment. The IMF kept [its] 2024 growth forecast unchanged at 3%.”

• The IMF expects inflation to improve, too, and sees core inflation “declining more slowly to 6% this year, from 6.5% last year.”
• IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas wrote in a blog post Tuesday that “the signs of progress are undeniable.”

However … Global economic challenges remain on the horizon, the IMF cautioned, citing a less-than-robust Chinese economic recovery from the pandemic, weakness in China’s real-estate market and an expected contraction of Germany’s economy.

• In Germany, manufacturing output declined in Q1 2023.
• Across nations that use the euro, “[d]ata released Monday showed business activity shrinking at a faster pace than expected.”

Our take: “While there continue to be significant challenges in the manufacturing sector globally, it is encouraging to see signs of resilience—not just in the U.S. economy, but in other markets as well,” said 51�Թ��� Chief Economist Chad Moutray.

United Parcel Service Inc. and the International Brotherhood of Teamsters came to a tentative agreement on a five-year labor contract yesterday, according to .

What’s going on: “Union leaders announced the deal midday Tuesday, hours after resuming negotiations following a breakdown in talks on July 5. The handshake agreement must still be approved by rank-and-file union members at UPS to take effect.”

• The current contract between the parties was set to expire on July 31. Earlier this year, the Teamsters overwhelmingly voted to strike beginning as soon as 12:01 a.m. Aug. 1 if no agreement had been reached.
• The tentative agreement—said to be worth about $30 billion in total—averts the possibility of a strike, which could have further snarled manufacturing supply chains and significantly affected domestic shipping services.
• The contract covers 340,000 UPS workers.

What they’re saying: “The deal, [UPS CEO Carol Tome] said, ‘continues to reward UPS’s full- and part-time employees with industry-leading pay and benefits while retaining the flexibility we need to stay competitive, serve our customers and keep our business strong.’” She called it a “win-win-win.”

• Teamsters President Sean O’Brien said in a statement that the deal “sets a new standard in the labor movement and raises the bar for all workers.”

Why it’s important: “A work stoppage by UPS drivers would have been the largest single-employer strike in U.S. history. A recent forecast by the Anderson Economic Group estimated that a 10-day walkout would cost the U.S. economy some $7 billion, with workers racking up $1.1 billion in lost wages and UPS seeing $816 million in losses.”

Our take: “Manufacturers applaud today’s agreement between @UPS and @Teamsters and thank both parties for working quickly to reach a resolution that provides our industry with the supply chain certainty we need to keep the U.S. economy strong,” the 51�Թ��� yesterday following news of the deal.