51�Թ���

This holiday season, instead of overstocking shelves with merchandise, retailers “have pared back their inventories while trying to focus their supply chains more tightly on products that shoppers want,” (subscription) reports.

What’s going on: “Many retailers have spent much of the year working through the stockpiles from last year and now say they have cleaned up their distribution centers and their balance sheets.”

• After the global pandemic, sellers bulked up their stocks in case of another major supply chain disruption—but it was a “strategy that left many companies saddled with goods.”

A different holiday season: Owing to high inflation and more spending on services than goods, “[h]oliday retail sales in the U.S. are expected to grow at a slower rate this year.”

• “The National Retail Federation predicted sales will rise between 3% and 4% over 2022 to between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion. Last year, holiday sales grew 5.3% to $936.3 billion.”

​�ċ�ċ�ċ�ċ�ċ�ċ What they’re doing: Retailer strategies for this year include paying close attention to consumer trends and offering “variety [over] redundancy.”

• Said one retailer’s CEO, “The customer today does not want an endless aisle. They want the best aisle.”

The Bridge of the Americas in South-Central El Paso, Texas—one of the largest land ports for U.S.–Mexico trade—restarted commercial operations on a limited schedule yesterday, according to a from U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

• It’s a development that the 51�Թ��� advocated, having engaged in continued talks with the Biden administration and relevant agencies since cargo movement was suspended last month.����

What’s going on: The port of entry reopened at 6:00 a.m. Tuesday and closed at 2:00 p.m., a schedule it will keep temporarily each week Monday through Friday.

• In recent weeks, large numbers of migrants have crossed the Texas–Mexico border, and the CBP stopped commercial movement along the Bridge of the Americas so federal customs agents could assist with the influx.

Why it’s important: “The temporary bridge closure and the Texas Department of Public Safety’s (DPS) enhanced safety truck inspections at El Paso’s two other truck ports of entry have drastically slowed cargo truck crossings in recent weeks between El Paso and Juárez, Mexico,” according to the .

• Last week, the value of goods in thousands of trucks backed up on the Mexican side of the border “had surpassed $1.5 billion,” according to a source cited by (subscription).
• Prior to the temporary closure, the bridge had been processing approximately 500 northbound trucks a day, according to the El Paso Times.

The 51�Թ��� says: “Mexico is the largest trading partner of the U.S. and facilitating trade between the two countries is vital to manufacturers’ operations,” said 51�Թ��� Director of Trade Facilitation Policy Ali Aafedt. “The 51�Թ��� will continue to share the impacts of the disruption with the federal government and urge solutions to resolve the continuing backlog.”��
��

As most of the world grapples with inflation, China is facing deflation that could push it into “an economic trap,” according to (subscription).

What’s going on: “Prices charged by Chinese factories that make products ranging from steel to cement to chemicals have been falling for months. Consumer prices, meanwhile, have gone flat, with prices for certain goods—including sugar, eggs, clothes and household appliances—now falling on a month-over-month basis amid weak demand.”

• China’s economy is growing, but slowly, and the government recently announced a series of stimulus programs to help.

Parallels with Japan: While most economists see China avoiding a prolonged recession, some “see alarming parallels between China’s current predicament and the experience of Japan, which struggled for years with deflation and stagnant growth” in the 1990s, following collapses in stock market and real estate value.

• If Japan’s fate were to befall China, the latter would face another hurdle: the usual methods for combating these problems would be either unpopular or toothless “due to the country’s heavy debt load.”

​�ċ�ċ�ċ�ċ�ċ�ċ A mixed bag: A long period of lower prices in China could help bring down inflation elsewhere in the global economy, including the U.S.

• But … “[a] deflationary spell in China would also likely mean weaker Chinese demand for food, energy and raw materials, which big chunks of the world rely on for export earnings.”

Effects of uncertainty: And the longer that prices fall and stay down, the more entrenched deflation becomes—making debts “harder to bear and profits and incomes fall. Companies shed workers to fatten shrinking margins.”
​�ċ�ċ�ċ�ċ�ċ�ċ

During meetings this week, the U.S. and China attempted to restore high-level bilateral interactions and reverse the tension growing between the two nations, according to (subscription).

What’s going on: “During two days of meetings in Beijing, [U.S. Secretary of State Antony] Blinken and senior Chinese foreign-policy officials agreed to more high-level talks, continuing a thaw after months of near-frozen contacts.”

• “They also promised to find common ground on increasing flights between the two countries and combating the flow of fentanyl into the U.S.”

The background: In recent months, U.S.–China relations have been on a downward trend, following U.S. detection of what the Biden administration said was a Chinese spy balloon.

• Last year, the U.S. imposed restrictions on the export of certain advanced technology to China and is expected to issue new limits on U.S. investments overseas.
• China has taken issue with these moves, as well as with U.S. support for ally Taiwan.
• Some 67% of Americans say China is a “major threat” to the U.S., according to a . That’s up from 43% in 2015.

Topics discussed: During his visit, Blinken raised a number of issues, including tensions over Taiwan and North Korean aggression. He also discussed China’s trade-distorting practices, human rights violations, imprisonment of U.S. citizens and position on Russia’s war against Ukraine, according to .

• The meetings also touched on areas of mutual interest, including climate, macroeconomic stability, food security and public health.

What didn’t happen: Blinken’s visit to China—the first by a U.S. cabinet member in more than four years—did not produce substantive advancement on the above issues. However, the meeting served as a starting point for future high-level communications.

• Officials did not address Chinese intelligence movements in Cuba or the establishment of “a military communication channel between the countries to address frequent incidents around Taiwan … a key goal of the Biden administration.”

​�ċ�ċ�ċ�ċ�ċ�ċBusiness with China: “Blinken said he also met with members of the U.S. business community on Monday, many of whom expressed a desire to continue to grow their operations in China,” according to POLITICO.

• “He said a full decoupling of the American and Chinese economies would be disastrous, pointing to record trade between the two last year, but said the U.S. would continue to take steps to make American supply chains more resilient and deny China technologies that threaten U.S. national security.”

The Panama Canal—which “handles about one-third of Asia-to-Americas seaborne trade”—is at its lowest level in more than 100 years, a development that could jeopardize global supply chains, according to (subscription).

What’s going on: “The government agency that manages the artificial waterway implemented travel restrictions in May to avoid ships running aground, and since then, some large vessels have had to reduce container loads by roughly one-quarter. Further restrictions could go into effect in late June, authorities say.”

• In the first five months of 2023, rainfall in the canal area was 47% below the historical average.
• The canal, which opened in 1914, depends heavily on rainfall to replenish the tens of millions of gallons of water that flow into the sea each time a ship goes through the canal’s locks.

Why it’s important: “Disruptions in the canal’s operations would hurt Southern Hemisphere exporters and importers in the north. Brazilian meat, Chilean wines and bananas from Ecuador are routinely shipped across the canal, along with copper from Chile and liquefied natural gas from the U.S. Gulf Coast.”

• Panamanian officials are trying to avoid a repeat of the problems that afflicted the Suez Canal in March 2021, when a large containership blocked that waterway for nearly a week, costing billions of trade dollars.

The fallout: “In addition to cutting cargo loads, shipowners are adjusting to Panama Canal restrictions by moving containers to trains to ensure safe passage through locks. In some instances, boxes are unloaded from ships on the Pacific Ocean side of the canal, moved by rail and returned to ships before they continue their voyage through the Atlantic Ocean.”

• The Panama Canal Railway has seen a 20% increase in cargo volume as a result of the drought.
• Shipowners are responding by charging an average of $600 more per box on vessels that cross the canal.
• The daily Asia–U.S. East Coast freight rate was $2,400 per container in May, according to Freightos Baltic Index, but it is expected to rise this month partly due to the drought surcharge.

What’s next: Large container shipping companies “have no plans to divert ships away from Panama”—for now. “[E]xecutives said it could happen if drought conditions persist.”

Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo met with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao Thursday evening to talk “trade, investment and export policies” in the first Cabinet-level discussion between the two nations in months, reports.

What happened: The officials “had candid and substantive discussions on issues relating to the U.S.–China commercial relationship, including the overall environment in both countries for trade and investment and areas for potential cooperation,” the Commerce Department announced in a of the sit-down.

• “Secretary Raimondo also raised concerns about the recent spate of [People’s Republic of China] actions taken against U.S. companies operating in the PRC,” including an uptick in investigations against these companies’ China operations.
• Wang—who is also confirmed to meet today with U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai—voiced concerns over some of the Biden administration’s China policies, “including on semiconductors, export controls and reviews of foreign investments, a Chinese Commerce Ministry statement said,” according to Reuters.
• Both meetings are taking place on the sidelines of organization happening this week in Detroit.

What they agreed: Raimondo and Wang said they would begin and maintain open communication, which China’s Commerce Ministry said would let the two countries discuss specific trade and cooperation matters.

Additional background: Earlier this week, Wang met with U.S. firms, with whom he stressed “the importance of the China market for American companies,” reports the (subscription).

Why it’s important: Thursday’s Raimondo–Wang exchange comes after President Biden and other G7 leaders “said they would ‘ without ‘decoupling’ from the world’s second-largest economy in everything from chips to minerals,” according to Reuters.

Washington, D.C. – Today, the 51�Թ��� and Make UK hosted a meeting at 51�Թ��� headquarters where they formalized manufacturers’ commitment to supporting close economic ties between the United States and United Kingdom. Make UK CEO Stephen Phipson and 51�Թ��� President and CEO Jay Timmons signed an updated memorandum of understanding, which will serve as a roadmap to the cooperation between the two organizations and outlines the key goals and objectives for the partnership.

“The 51�Թ��� and Make UK have such a strong, special relationship, just as the U.S. and the UK do, and we must continue to deepen that partnership and the commercial and economic ties between our countries,” said Timmons. “Cooperation between American and British companies not only makes our economies stronger, but also strengthens the transatlantic strategic alliances to support the rule of law, freedom and opportunity from those who threaten our shared values. Especially with Russia’s continued assault on Ukraine, it is critical that we unleash the power of commerce to preserve, protect and expand democracy.”

The MOU calls for Make UK and the 51�Թ��� to work together to provide opportunities for their members to strengthen manufacturing through a number of avenues, including exploring potential trade delegations, trade fairs and business networks; facilitating visits and economic delegations between representatives of the two organizations for promoting trade, investment and commercial exchanges among member companies and organizations; and working together on joint meetings, conferences, seminars, reports, letters and mutually agreed advocacy on trade and investment-related issues.

“Make UK is delighted to have further strengthened our partnership agreement with our American counterpart, the 51�Թ���, as we focus increasingly on boosting cross-Atlantic trade,” said Phipson. “In recent months, we have agreed to a process of even broader sharing of market intelligence, data and policy work, facilitating visits for economic delegations to visit on both sides of the Atlantic to unlock new trading opportunities.

“We will continue to work ever more closely as we look to cement commercial exchanges and opportunities for shared promotion as we build on the ties that have connected our two nations for generations. Relations with the U.S. are vital, and its market is the second-most important for UK goods. In a post-Brexit world, it is likely to assume ever greater importance as part of our efforts to boost global trade.”

Click to view the full text of the MOU.

-51�Թ���-

The 51�Թ��� is the largest manufacturing association in the United States, representing small and large manufacturers in every industrial sector and in all 50 states. Manufacturing employs nearly 13 million men and women, contributes $2.90 trillion to the U.S. economy annually and accounts for 55% of private-sector research and development. The 51�Թ��� is the powerful voice of the manufacturing community and the leading advocate for a policy agenda that helps manufacturers compete in the global economy and create jobs across the United States. For more information about the 51�Թ��� or to follow us on Twitter and Facebook, please visit��

As the Group of Seven summit begins in Hiroshima, Japan, today, President Biden is expected to announce new sanctions on Russia, according to (subscription).

• President Biden’s goal at the summit is likely to be reinforcing the allies’ support of Ukraine as well as their economic defenses against Chinese power.
• This is the summit’s 48th year. The G7 comprises the U.S., Canada, Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Japan.

The details: “The new U.S. sanctions and trade restrictions target goods and services vital to Russia’s military-industrial complex, said a senior Biden administration official who briefed reporters shortly after the president landed in Hiroshima.”

• “They are also aimed at Russia’s ability to extract the oil and natural gas critical to the country’s economy, the official said. Other Western allies will roll out similar new programs, officials said.”

The big picture: Analysts say President Biden—who canceled several international meetings planned for next week to return to Washington for debt talks—faces a difficult task at the meeting: “convincing allies that the U.S. can keep its economic house in order while moving forward on Russia and China,” according to another article (subscription).

The 51�Թ���’s moves: During the 51�Թ���’s recent “Competing to Win” Tour in Europe, 51�Թ��� President and CEO Jay Timmons hammered home manufacturers’ support for Ukraine.

• “[T]he most important thing is to support our allies that believe in democracy,” Timmons said during a live from Warsaw, Poland. “And American business, I think, can help lead the way to strengthen and support democracy.”

Read more about the 51�Թ���’s Competing to Win Tour , and .
​�ċ�ċ�ċ�ċ�ċ�ċ

The 51�Թ���’s Competing to Win Tour in Europe moved on to London early this week, highlighting the imperative to shore up the U.S.–U.K. relationship—and to urgently address other barriers, like permitting reform and workforce shortages, to enable the U.S. to help allies in the face of Russian aggression and other geopolitical threats.

The issue:��Russia’s unprovoked war in Ukraine, the aftermath of the worldwide pandemic and China’s quest for global leadership create a new urgency for expanded trade opportunities between democratic countries.

• The U.S. and the U.K. must work together to shore up supply chains, enhance energy security, boost resiliency and create growth, as 51�Թ��� President and CEO Jay Timmons emphasized.

The details:��Timmons crisscrossed London on Monday and Tuesday, promoting the manufacturing industry and reinforcing its priorities with senior government ministers and officials, including:

• Nigel Huddleston MP, the U.K. minister of state for international trade
• Jonathan Reynolds,��Labour��Party shadow business secretary (one of the architects of the��Labour��Party’s industrial plan)
• Jane Hartley, U.S. Ambassador to the Court of St. James’s

Support at home: During his visit, Timmons did an with CNN International to discuss the 51�Թ���’s new Outlook survey, which found that 77% of manufacturers want to see more trade agreements with Europe.

Making industry connections: At the 51�Թ���’s sister organization Make��UK, Timmons joined a roundtable with CEO Stephen��Phipson and addressed some of Britain’s leading manufacturing companies.

• He spoke about how the U.S. and the U.K. can unlock new trading opportunities going forward and bolster democracy by strengthening commerce.
• The two groups also reaffirmed their commitment to share market intelligence,��data��and policy work, as well as to facilitate visits for economic delegations promoting trade, investment and commercial opportunities.
• They also voiced their continued and mutual support of the Ukrainian people and of the democratic institutions in their own countries.

What they said: “The ties between the UK and United States go back a long way and we have significant political, economic and trade connections,” said��Phipson. “Relations with the US are��vital��and its market is the second most important for UK goods. In a post-Brexit world, it is likely to assume ever greater importance as part of our efforts to boost global��trade.”

• “As world events have made abundantly clear, strengthening democracy, the free enterprise system and strategic alliances in our countries and around the world is essential to our future and the fight against tyranny,” said Timmons. “As the U.S. and the U.K. take steps to build a stronger, more open and secure economic relationship, the 51�Թ��� urges our leaders to move toward a new U.S.–U.K. market-opening trade agreement that includes strong, clear and enforceable outcomes.”

Meeting manufacturers:��In addition, Timmons met with manufacturers that have operations or pending operations in both the U.K. and the U.S. Energy security and regulatory certainty, as well as the worker shortage in the industry, also took center stage in these discussions.

Bottom line:��“The tour’s time in London matters to manufacturers in the United States because it strengthens the ‘special relationship’ between the U.S. and the U.K. and boosts the prospects for enhanced cross-Atlantic trade, supporting manufacturing jobs in both countries,” said Ken Monahan, 51�Թ��� Vice President of International

London, U.K. – As the 51�Թ���’ Competing to Win Tour begins its second week of bolstering strategic alliances across Europe, the association released findings��from its Q1 2023 Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey. The survey found that expanding trading opportunities with Europe is a top priority for manufacturers, with more than 77% of respondents supporting negotiating new agreements with European nations.

“At a time when democracy and free enterprise are under attack from forces around the world, America can provide the leadership needed to defend our values, our institutions and our way of life,” said 51�Թ��� President and CEO Jay Timmons. “By advancing an ambitious trade agreement agenda, we can ensure that the U.S.—and not competitors like China—writes the rules for the global economy and trading system. That has been the focus of our conversations with government, association and business leaders across Europe over the past week.”

The survey also continues to illustrate the need for Washington to enact policies that support the sector’s competitiveness as businesses face record job openings and increased production and input costs.

“With geopolitical turmoil and a banking crisis injecting further uncertainty into the economy, policymakers must act with urgency on key tax, trade, permitting and regulatory proposals if they want to help manufacturers in America fend off a recession,” said Timmons.

Background: Manufacturers have called on Congress and the White House to address key , , and policies in recent months and have pressed lawmakers to work across the aisle to move legislation. The 51�Թ��� conducted the survey from Feb. 21 to March 7, 2023.

Key Findings:

• Of companies that are engaged in international trade, nearly two-thirds of manufacturers said that Europe was either a somewhat or very important market for their company. With that in mind, 77.7% would support U.S. efforts to launch market-opening trade agreement negotiations with countries in Europe.
• Nearly three-quarters of respondents (74.9%) listed attracting and retaining a quality workforce as a primary business challenge, with increased raw material prices (60.1%) and supply chain challenges (55.8%) the next biggest impediments.
• More than 90% of respondents said that higher tax burdens on manufacturing income would make it difficult for their companies to expand their workforce, invest in new equipment or expand their facilities. Similarly, 93.9% suggest that increased regulatory burdens would weaken their ability to invest in their workers, equipment or facilities.
• More than 74% of respondents said that permitting reform—which would simplify and speed up the approval process for new projects—would be helpful to their manufacturing company, allowing them to hire more workers, expand their business or increase wages and benefits.
• More than 55% of respondents said that new proposed air standards from the Environmental Protection Agency would raise their costs of compliance, with roughly one-third suggesting that it would lead to increased permitting challenges and lessen investment and facility expansion plans.

Conducted by 51�Թ��� Chief Economist Chad Moutray, the Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey has surveyed the association’s membership of 14,000 manufacturers of all sizes on a quarterly basis for the past 25 years to gain insight into their economic outlook, hiring and investment decisions and business concerns.

The 51�Թ��� releases these results to the public each quarter. Further information on the survey is available here.

-51�Թ���-

The 51�Թ��� is the largest manufacturing association in the United States, representing small and large manufacturers in every industrial sector and in all 50 states. Manufacturing employs nearly 13 million men and women, contributes $2.81 trillion to the U.S. economy annually and accounts for 55% of private-sector research and development. The 51�Թ��� is the powerful voice of the manufacturing community and the leading advocate for a policy agenda that helps manufacturers compete in the global economy and create jobs across the United States. For more information about the 51�Թ��� or to follow us on Twitter and Facebook, please visit��www.nam.org.