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Canadian dockworkers and their employers in British Columbia agreed to a labor contract Sunday, ending the uncertainty that has plagued the North American port system for the past month, according to .��

What’s going on: The International Longshore and Warehouse Union of Canada voted to ratify a four-year agreement with the British Columbia Maritime Employers Association following a tumultuous few weeks that included two dockworker strikes—one lasting 14 days and the other only a day.

• “The new deal includes increases in wages, benefits, and training,” according to BCMEA, which also said deal ratification would offer “certainty and stability for the future of Canada’s West Coast ports.”

Why it’s important: During the two-week strike, “[s]ome U.S. shippers reconsigned the destination of their containers to the U.S during that time. Other ocean carriers eventually went back to the Canadian ports and waited to unload both Canadian and U.S. freight.”

• Changes to shipping routes affect railroads, since fewer containers traveling by rail can be unloaded at ports during work disruptions.
• It could take the railroads weeks to clear the backlog of containers built up as a result of the work stoppage.
• While train trade from Canada to the U.S. is recovering, it still ended the week of July 29 with a 6.2% decrease, according to CNBC.

The 51�Թ���’s take: “Disruptions to the interconnected North American supply chain have been a constant challenge for manufacturers over the past several years,” said 51�Թ��� Director of Infrastructure and Labor Policy. “We welcome the announcement that this agreement has been ratified and will continue urging swift resolution to labor negotiations that might further impede reliable and efficient freight movement.”��

Manufacturing employment declined in July, marking the third decrease of 2023, according to the .

What’s going on: Jobs in manufacturing dipped by 2,000. Year to date, the sector has added just 11,000 employees, a significant slowdown from its pace of 385,000 in 2021 and 390,000 in 2022.

• However, the number of workers in the industry in July—12,985,000—is just short of the number in February, 12,988,000. The latter was the most since November 2008.
• Overall, the economy added 187,000 jobs in July, coming in under expectations, according to .

Wages: Average hourly pay of production and nonsupervisory staff in manufacturing increased 0.3% in July to $26.46, with 5.3% growth in the past year.��

Where employment is up: In July, manufacturing’s largest employment gains were in transportation equipment (up 5,600), computers and electronic products (up 2,500), miscellaneous nondurable goods (up 1,800), primary metals (up 1,700), miscellaneous durable goods (up 1,300)��and nonmetallic mineral products (up 1,000).

The 51�Թ��� says: “Total manufacturing employment has remained relatively resilient despite a challenging economic environment in the sector, including weaker demand, production and an uncertain outlook,” said 51�Թ��� Chief Economist Chad Moutray.
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A persistent shortage of construction workers in the U.S. is slowing the completion of everything from single-family homes to major infrastructure projects, according to .

What’s going on: To meet labor demands this year, “construction firms will need to attract an estimated 546,000 additional workers on top of the normal pace of hiring,” CNBC reports, citing data from Associated Builders and Contractors.

• “The construction industry averaged more than 390,000 job openings per month in 2022, the highest level on record, while unemployment in the sector of 4.6% was the second lowest on record.”

Why it’s important: The industry’s labor shortage is not likely to be resolved any time soon. When combined with rising materials costs, it will only worsen the backlog of projects, which is already at a four-year high.

What’s needed: The bipartisan infrastructure bill of 2021 allocated money for projects, but not for “enticing new workers … or training” them, according to CNBC. Another component of the solution: , a policy the 51�Թ��� has long advocated.

• “More money is going to need to be spent on training additional workers, bringing people into this industry,” a source told CNBC.
• Said another, “We should also be looking at ways to allow more people to lawfully enter the country and work in construction careers, whether that’s a temporary work visa program that’s specific to construction, or broader comprehensive immigration reform.”

Our take: “The record manufacturing construction activity seen in the U.S. is further straining an already tight labor market,” said Chad Moutray, chief economist at the 51�Թ��� and director of the Center for Manufacturing Research at the Manufacturing Institute, the 51�Թ���’s 501(c)3 workforce development and education affiliate.

• “Leaders in the sector are trying to think of ways to differentiate themselves in the competition for talent. Such pressures—along with changing demographics—are likely to keep workforce challenges front and center over the coming years.”

Manufacturing job openings inched down in June, data showed, and manufacturers continued to see business challenges in July, according to the .

What’s going on: Open positions in the manufacturing sector declined approximately 4.28%, to 582,000 in June from 608,000 in May. Meanwhile, economic activity in the manufacturing industry declined for the ninth month in a row in July.

• While the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index was 46.4 in July, up from 46.0 in June, any number under 50 indicates contraction.
• In employment, durable goods job openings decreased to 356,000 in June from 379,000 in May. In nondurable goods, openings fell to 226,000 from 229,000 in the same period.

The details: New orders (up to 47.3 from 45.6) and production (up to 48.3 from 46.7) declined more slowly in July, according to the��ISM®.

• However, employment fell to 44.4 from 48.1, and exports declined to 46.2 from 47.3.

Hiring: Manufacturing’s net hiring—hires minus separations—in June was 6,000, the same as the pace in May.

• Job openings in the sector remained above pre-pandemic levels.

United Parcel Service Inc. and the International Brotherhood of Teamsters came to a tentative agreement on a five-year labor contract yesterday, according to .

What’s going on: “Union leaders announced the deal midday Tuesday, hours after resuming negotiations following a breakdown in talks on July 5. The handshake agreement must still be approved by rank-and-file union members at UPS to take effect.”

• The current contract between the parties was set to expire on July 31. Earlier this year, the Teamsters overwhelmingly voted to strike beginning as soon as 12:01 a.m. Aug. 1 if no agreement had been reached.
• The tentative agreement—said to be worth about $30 billion in total—averts the possibility of a strike, which could have further snarled manufacturing supply chains and significantly affected domestic shipping services.
• The contract covers 340,000 UPS workers.

What they’re saying: “The deal, [UPS CEO Carol Tome] said, ‘continues to reward UPS’s full- and part-time employees with industry-leading pay and benefits while retaining the flexibility we need to stay competitive, serve our customers and keep our business strong.’” She called it a “win-win-win.”

• Teamsters President Sean O’Brien said in a statement that the deal “sets a new standard in the labor movement and raises the bar for all workers.”

Why it’s important: “A work stoppage by UPS drivers would have been the largest single-employer strike in U.S. history. A recent forecast by the Anderson Economic Group estimated that a 10-day walkout would cost the U.S. economy some $7 billion, with workers racking up $1.1 billion in lost wages and UPS seeing $816 million in losses.”

Our take: “Manufacturers applaud today’s agreement between @UPS and @Teamsters and thank both parties for working quickly to reach a resolution that provides our industry with the supply chain certainty we need to keep the U.S. economy strong,” the 51�Թ��� yesterday following news of the deal.

Speaking of the importance of flexibility, a survey of 5,700 onsite US workers in industries like manufacturing, transportation and health care found a mismatch between the flexibility options that companies provide and what employees actually want.

What companies are offering: The most common flexibility options that onsite workers reported were relaxed dress code (55%), flexible start and end times (33%) and choice over hours they worked (31%).

What onsite workers want: When asked what flexibility options they would change jobs to get, onsite workers reported increased paid time off or vacation time (57%) and four-day work weeks (44%).

Employee engagement matters: People with engaging work and one week of vacation report 25% higher well-being than actively disengaged workers who have six or more weeks of vacation, according to .

• Among those with fully onsite work responsibilities, Gallup finds that those with a four-day work week report lower active disengagement and higher overall well-being.

Which manufacturing sectors experienced the most growth in job openings over the past year? We used Lightcast™ to dive into the 789,969 unique job postings for the past 12 months (May 2022 to May 2023) and organized by North American Industrial Classification (NAICS) codes. In this case, we are better able to understand what sectors are experiencing the most growth. As a reminder, the data get more granular with increased digits.

The top manufacturing sectors over the past 12 months at the 3-digit NAICS level, ordered by the number of unique postings, were:

1. Computer and Electronic Products (NAICS 334) – 103,507 unique postings
2. Transportation Equipment (NAICS 336) – 93,075
3. Food Manufacturing (NAICS 311) – 78,397
4. Machinery (NAICS 333)– 74,193
5. Chemicals (NAICS 325) – 72,254

The top manufacturing sectors over the past 12 months at the 4-digit NAICS level, ordered by the number of unique postings:

1. Navigational, Measuring, Electromedical, and Control Instruments Manufacturing (NAICS 3345) – 66,411 unique postings
2. Beverage Manufacturing (NAICS 3121) – 54,837
3. Aerospace Products and Parts (NAICS 3364) – 40,541
4. Pharmaceuticals and Medicines (NAICS 3254) – 27,442
5. Motor Vehicle Manufacturing (NAICS 3361) – 25,006

➔ �� The takeaway: Though growth in manufacturing has been broad-based, many of the sectors leading job creation over the past year require advanced skills and yield high salaries. Looking at only the top five 4-digit NAICS manufacturing sectors list above, the median advertised salaries for those five sectors over the past 12 months was $36.12 per hour. ��

* Lightcast™ data accessed on June 16, 2023.

The big number: 74.4% of respondents in the cited the inability to attract and retain workers as their primary business concern, even amid signs of a cooling labor market. This is the third consecutive quarter in which this concern appeared at the top of respondents’ list.

• In the , more than 59% of manufacturers said that not having enough employees would impact their ability to make investments or expand.

Manufacturing: Manufacturing employment rose by 7,000 in June, continuing to seesaw from month to month over the year to date.

• The sector added just 15,000 workers during the first six months of 2023, slowing materially after adding a robust 385,000 and 390,000 employees in 2021 and 2022, respectively.
• More positively, there were 12,989,000 manufacturing employees in June, just shy of February’s total of 12,988,000, which was the most since November 2008.

Nonfarm payrolls: Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 209,000 in June, slowing from 306,000 in April but still a good figure. The U.S. economy has added 1,669,000 workers through the first half of 2023, a robust pace.

• The unemployment rate edged down from 3.7% in May to 3.6% in June, as the economy remains at or near “full employment.”
• The number of employed workers increased from 160,721,000 in May to 160,994,000 in June, which was not far from April’s record level (161,031,000). Those who were unemployed declined from 6,097,000 to 5,957,000.
• The labor force participation rate remained at 62.6% for the fourth straight month, the best rate since March 2020.

Job openings: There 604,000 manufacturing job openings in May, down from 668,000 in April and the lowest level since February 2021. Even with the overall labor market remaining solid, the number of job postings in the sector continues to cool notably, as expected.

• Total quits in the manufacturing sector rose to 293,000 in May, an 11-month high. In addition, total quits in the overall economy increased to 4.015,000, the most since December.
• With that said, layoffs in the manufacturing sector have also risen, up to 139,000 in May, the highest level since July 2020.
• Meanwhile, nonfarm business job openings declined from 10,320,000 in April to 9,824,000 in May, a solid reading. In May, there were 62.1 unemployed workers for every 100 job openings in the U.S. economy.

Wages: The average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers in manufacturing jumped 1.0% to $26.41 in June, with 5.6% growth over the past 12 months, up from 4.7% in May. ��

➔ ��Key takeaway: Manufacturers continue to cite an inability to attract and retain workers as their top challenge. While there are signs that the labor market is cooling, both for manufacturers and the macroeconomy, employment remains not far from a 15-year high while wage growth continues to increase very solidly.

Industrial production declined 0.5% in June for the second month in a row, the Federal Reserve reported today, according to (subscription).

What’s going on: “The June index of production at factories, mines and utilities decreased 0.5% for a second [consecutive] month, Federal Reserve data showed Tuesday. Manufacturing output declined 0.3% in June, the most in three months.”

• The central bank’s index of manufacturing output has dipped 0.3% from June 2022, with production hamstrung “by lackluster export markets, efforts to work down inventories and more limited consumer spending on merchandise.”

The details: Consumer goods output declined 1.3% in June, the biggest drop in more than two years and a reflection of decreased production across a wide swath of categories, including automotive vehicles, apparel and appliances.

• Materials output also declined, while production of business equipment was flat.

Some good news: “[M]anufacturing may benefit some in coming months as retailers get inventories more in line with sales and the pace of goods inflation slows. Separate data on Tuesday showed retail sales rose by less than forecast, while an underlying measure of household spending pointed to a more resilient consumer at the end of the second quarter.”

U.S. wages are now growing faster than inflation for the first time in two years, helping workers but muddling Federal Reserve attempts to lower price increases, according to (subscription).

What’s going on: “Inflation-adjusted average hourly wages rose 1.2% in June from a year earlier, according to the Labor Department. That marked the second straight month of seasonally adjusted gains after two years when workers’ historically elevated raises were erased by price increases.”

• In manufacturing, wages are up 5.6% over a year ago, according to 51�Թ��� Chief Economist Chad Moutray.

More to enjoy: “In addition to enjoying solid wage growth, Americans are taking comfort in slower price increases for everyday items—such as gasoline and groceries—that have the biggest influence on their perception of inflation.”

• However … Adjusted for inflation, pay growth “remains below the trend in the five years before the pandemic,” one source told the Journal.

Why it’s important: If wages continue to surpass cost increases, they could encourage more spending, which could help the economy avoid a recession.

• In recent months, Journal-polled economists have been less confident that there will be a recession in the next 12 months. However, Americans in general continue to expect a recession, according to the article.

The Fed’s role: The Federal Reserve has increased the benchmark interest rate 10 times in the past 16 months and has indicated it will raise it again later this month.

• “‘It’s great to see wage increases, particularly for people at the lower end of the income spectrum,’ [Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome] Powell said [in June]. ‘But we want that as part of the process of getting inflation back down to 2%, which benefits everyone.’”

The last word: “With manufacturers continuing to cite workforce challenges, even in a cooling labor market, wage growth remains significant,” Moutray said. “The average manufacturer pays $26.41 [an hour] nationally for production and nonsupervisory workers, up 5.6% from one year ago, a very solid rate. Relief on growth in consumer inflation will allow those employees to realize the purchasing power of those dollars more fully.”

Further resources: For more workforce solutions and insights, check out the resources of , the 51�Թ���’s 501(c)3 nonprofit workforce development and education affiliate.
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