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The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 51.8 in December, down from the November reading of 52.2. New orders declined for the first time in a year. At the same time, exports fell for the seventh consecutive month, as tariffs continued to impact sales to key markets, especially Canada. Meanwhile, input and output prices rose in December, but at the slowest rate in 11 months. Despite the slowing pace of price increases, inflation remains elevated from a historical context in December.

Production rose over the month, allowing stocks of finished goods to rise for the fifth consecutive month. Nonetheless, output increased at a slower rate than November’s survey record due to the contraction in new orders. Furthermore, the gap between the growth of production and the drop in orders was the greatest since the height of the global financial crisis. If demand and export sales remain weak, the continuing rise in unsold stock likely will result in a decline in output in future months. Meanwhile, delivery times lengthened in December to their longest level in seven months due to difficulties receiving inputs as a result of supplier capacity constraints.

Uncertainty around tariffs continued to weigh on business confidence, with overall business confidence easing from November to the lowest level since April. Despite the uncertainty, expectations of lower interest rates and new investment plans kept business confidence positive. Firms expanded labor capacity in anticipation of strong sales next year. As a result, employment rose solidly for a fourth consecutive month in December.

In December, global manufacturing activity eased from 50.5 in November to 50.4. Output rose for the fifth consecutive month but at a slower pace than November, as new orders remained stable from the prior month. The stagnation in new work was due, in part, to the ongoing contraction in international trade, with new export orders declining for a ninth consecutive month. Staffing levels stayed the same, while backlogs of work decreased slightly.��

India, Vietnam, Greece and Pakistan had the highest PMI readings in December. On the other hand, Mexico, Germany, Japan, Brazil and Russia were some of the larger nations to register declines in activity. The increase in manufacturing output occurred across the consumer, intermediate and investment goods categories.

Meanwhile, both input and output price pressures picked up in December but remained below long-run averages. Forward-looking indicators were positive, with business optimism remaining at November’s five-month high and investment goods producers seeing positive gains after stalling recently.

Washington, D.C. – Last week, the 51�Թ��� released its quarterly Outlook Survey. The Q3 2025 Outlook Survey—the first to be administered after the passage of this year’s landmark tax legislation—shows markedly improved optimism among manufacturers. Manufacturers report increased optimism (65%) over the previous quarter (55.4%).

However, persistent uncertainty in familiar policy areas is edging up from the previous quarter.

• Trade uncertainty: 78.2% (up from 77.0%)
• Rising raw material costs: 68.1% (up from 66.1%)
• Increasing health care costs: 65.1% (up from 60.0%)

51�Թ��� President and CEO Jay Timmons remarked: “These results confirm what we’ve seen in the economic data—that the sector is still enormously challenged as manufacturing output took four months to recover from this spring’s dip, and optimism still falls below the survey’s historical average of 74%.”

“To supercharge the increase in optimism we’re starting to see, manufacturers need certainty across a full manufacturing strategy spanning sensible trade policy, permitting reform to unleash American energy dominance, modernized regulations and workforce investments,”��Timmons said.��“Put another way, so long as this uncertainty persists, manufacturers will not be able to tap fully into the strength of President Trump’s monumental and historic tax provisions, championed by our allies in the White House and Congress.”

51�Թ��� Chief Economist Victoria Bloom observed that “the third quarter optimism level aligns with August’s production data released by the Federal Reserve, which showed that manufacturing output was 100.3% of its 2017 average, barely above March’s level of 100.2%, taking four months to recover from April’s drop.”

“At the same time, manufacturers are projecting moderate growth over the next 12 months with production expected to rise 2.5% (up from 1.4% in Q2) and capital investments 1.0% (up from 0.3%),”��Bloom said.��“Costs are still expected to climb, but at a slightly slower pace than Q2, with raw material and input costs projected to increase 5.4% (down from 5.8%) and product prices up 3.7% (down from 4.3%). These findings reflect both the resilience of the sector and the real challenges still weighing on growth.”

The 51�Թ��� releases these results to the public each quarter. Further information on the survey is available��here.

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The 51�Թ��� is the largest manufacturing association in the United States, representing small and large manufacturers in every industrial sector and in all 50 states. Manufacturing employs nearly 13 million men and women, contributes $2.93 trillion to the U.S. economy annually and accounts for 53% of private-sector research and development. The 51�Թ��� is the powerful voice of the manufacturing community and the leading advocate for a policy agenda that helps manufacturers compete in the global economy and create jobs across the United States. For more information about the 51�Թ��� or to follow us on Twitter and Facebook, please visit��

Business activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector declined for the third consecutive month in May—and at a slightly faster pace than in April ().

What’s going on: The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index edged down to 48.5 from 48.7 in April, reflecting continued weakness in demand and output.

• The New Orders Index rose slightly to 47.6 but remained in contraction for the fourth straight month. Only two of the six largest manufacturing sectors—petroleum and coal products and machinery—reported increased new orders.
• The Production Index ticked up to 45.4, still signaling contraction but at a slower pace.

Tariffs: The New Export Orders Index fell sharply to 40.1, the fastest pace of contraction since the COVID-19 pandemic, driven by slower global growth and new retaliatory tariffs on U.S.-manufactured goods.

• The Imports Index plunged to 39.9, as tariff-related price increases softened demand.

Jobs: The Employment Index rose modestly to 46.8 but remained in negative territory, suggesting continued job losses in manufacturing, though at a slower rate. Companies cited hiring freezes, layoffs and attrition amid uncertainty about future demand.

Prices: The Prices Index dipped slightly to 69.4, but remained elevated as steel, aluminum and other tariffed imports drove raw materials costs higher.

Inventories: Inventories fell back into contraction, dropping to 46.7 after a brief expansion in April, as firms stopped pulling forward deliveries and worked through earlier stockpiles built up ahead of tariff hikes.

Manufacturing in the U.S. will experience a renaissance under President Trump, Vice President JD Vance said Friday in an 51�Թ���-attended at Vantage Plastics in Bay City, Michigan.

What’s going on: Vice President Vance—whose talk was part of the Small Business Administration’s recently announced multistate Made in America Manufacturing Initiative and Made in America Roadshow—told the crowd of employees at the plastics processing facility that America’s achievements are contingent on the achievements of its manufacturers.

• “I really do believe that America’s success depends on the success of companies like Vantage Plastics,” he said. “And I don’t mean that in some abstract, poetic-sounding sense; I mean it literally. If we do not protect our nation’s manufacturers, we lose a fundamental part of who we are as a people. Making things, building things, working with our hands is America’s heritage, and that heritage is alive and well in this facility.”
• Vantage Plastics President Paul Aultman agreed. “Imagine how much stronger this country would be if every manufacturer—large and small, in cities and towns across America—had the tools to build, expand and succeed,” Aultman . “Manufacturing is the backbone of America, and on shop floors like ours, we’re not just making products—we’re making the future.”

Relief from the onslaught: The Trump administration intends to protect manufacturers and in doing so, touch off a gilded age for the industry—by unburdening it of the many regulations that have been heaped upon it, said Vice President Vance.

• “The Trump administration is working hard to slash regulations left and right. … We’ve got to make it easier to build stuff in our own country. We can’t have people telling our great builders that if they want to start a factory or if they want to expand a factory, they’re not allowed to,” he said, echoing , backed by manufacturer surveys and data. “And that is the biggest thing, I think, the Trump administration is working on when it comes to renewing American manufacturing.”
• SBA Administrator Kelly Loeffler, who spoke prior to Vice President Vance at the event, sounded a similar note, saying, “The golden era of manufacturing in America is not behind us; it’s in front of us” ().

Energy unleashed: Vice President Vance discussed the administration’s move last week to review dozens of burdensome Environmental Protection Agency regulations.

• “These include the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, which cost U.S. factories and power plants hundreds of millions of dollars,” the vice president continued. “And that money is now going to be reinvested in American workers. And we remember the Clean Power Plan 2.0, which has imperiled America’s grid by creating impossible restrictions on coal and natural gas plants that account for 60% of our power. You can’t tell people to build in America while at the same time destroying American energy.”

A new path forward: Under President Trump, American manufacturing will have room to thrive, the vice president went on.

• “We are done overregulating American businesses. We are going to be guided by a simple principle: Build in this country. We cut your taxes, we reduce your regulation and we reduce your energy costs. Build in this country. Make American manufacturing great again. And we are going to fight for you—and the president will, too.”
• “Our goal is to make it easier and more affordable to make things again in the United States of America,” he said. “If you invest in American jobs and workers and businesses, you will be rewarded. We will cut your taxes, we will slash regulations and reduce the cost of industry in this country we all love.”

The last word: “President Trump and Vice President Vance understand what manufacturing means to America—not just in economic terms, but also in human terms,” 51�Թ��� President and CEO Jay Timmons said.

• “But we can only reach our full potential with the type of leadership that will make the 2017 tax reforms that were rocket fuel for the manufacturing industry permanent, rebalance the regulatory framework, expedite permitting reform to unleash American energy, grow the manufacturing workforce and implement sensible trade policies. That’s how we make America strong, prosperous and proud. That’s how we will Make America Great for Manufacturing Again.”

Manufacturers are increasingly worried about the future of trade and rising raw material costs, according to the .
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What’s going on: In the most recent survey, conducted from Feb. 11 to Feb. 28, trade uncertainties moved to the top of the list of manufacturers’ concerns—with 76.2% of respondents citing them as their primary worry. Increased raw material costs came in second, cited by 62.3% of those surveyed.

• In fact, manufacturers expect prices on their companies’ product lines to go up by 3.6% in the next year, an increase from 2.3% in Q4 2024 and the highest since Q3 2022, when inflation was more than 8%.
• Manufacturers also anticipate the cost of raw materials and other inputs to rise 5.5% in the next year, the highest expected rate of increase since Q2 2022, when inflation was between 8% and 9%.
• Manufacturers foresee export sales to increase just 0.1% in the next year. That’s the lowest anticipated rise since Q2 2020 at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• In addition, the percentage of manufacturers with a positive outlook for their company inched down from the last quarter, to 69.7% from 70.9%.

Taxes: Manufacturers also feel strongly that their businesses need the “rocket fuel” of the tax reform extension. If Congress fails to extend pro-manufacturing provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017:

• 69.35% of respondents said they would delay capital equipment purchases;
• 45.23% would delay hiring;
• 44.72% would pause operations expansions;
• 41.71% would limit R&D investment; and
• 40.20% would curb employee wages or benefits increases.

Our take: “The pressure of increased costs, trade instability and sluggish demand is dampening the sector’s momentum, making it more difficult for manufacturers to plan, invest and hire,” 51�Թ��� President and CEO Jay Timmons a social post Thursday.

• “We are calling for a comprehensive manufacturing strategy that includes a commonsense trade policy in addition to making President Trump’s 2017 tax reforms permanent and more competitive, securing regulatory certainty, expediting permitting reform to unleash American energy dominance and key manufacturing projects and increasing the talent pool.”

In his first address to Congress in his second term, President Trump made it clear that tariffs are not just a temporary tool, but a fixture of his administration’s trade policy. The president discussed his vision for an “America First” strategy, which includes the tariffs that went into effect and .

In his words: “Deals are being made,” he said. “That’s a combination of the election win and tariffs. It’s a beautiful word, isn’t it?”

• “If you don’t make your product in America … you will pay a tariff and, in some cases, a rather large one. Other countries have used tariffs against us for decades, and now it’s our turn to start using them against those other countries.”
• “On average [according to the president], the European Union, China, Brazil, India, Mexico and Canada … and countless other nations charge us tremendously higher tariffs than we charge them. It’s very unfair.”
• “[On April 2,] reciprocal tariffs kick in, and whatever they tariff us, other countries, we will tariff them…If they do nonmonetary tariffs to keep us out of their market, then we will do nonmonetary barriers to keep them out of our market.”

On Canada and Mexico: “[W]e have very large deficits with both of them. … We pay subsidies to Canada and to Mexico of hundreds of billions of dollars. And the United States will not be doing that any longer. We are not going to do it any longer.”

• “Tariffs are about making America rich again and making America great again, and it is happening, and it will happen rather quickly. There will be a little disturbance, but we are OK with that.”

The 51�Թ���’s take: Ahead of the speech, 51�Թ��� President and CEO Jay Timmons pointed out in a that manufacturers—especially those with thin margins—are already feeling the pressure from new tariffs. “The stakes couldn’t be higher for manufacturers right now,” he said. The 51�Թ��� highlighted some examples after the tariffs went into effect yesterday from both small and large manufacturers:

• A power-engineering manufacturer faces $25 million in additional costs from the Mexico tariffs alone, impacting the ability to supply U.S. utilities and industrial customers.
• A major consumer goods manufacturer is looking at $231 million new costs from tariffs from Mexico and Canada.
• A small copper manufacturer was forced to turn back 388,000 pounds of copper at the Canadian border when tariffs took effect, with future imports costing an extra $50,000 per truckload.

Comprehensive manufacturing strategy: “To mitigate the adverse effects of today’s tariffs,” Timmons said, “President Trump and Congress [need] to implement a that would create predictability and certainty to invest, plan and hire.”

• That strategy should include making President Trump’s 2017 tax reforms permanent and more competitive, securing regulatory certainty, expediting permitting reform to unleash American energy dominance and key manufacturing projects, increasing the talent pool and implementing a commonsense trade policy, Timmons added.
• In recent weeks, including with the , Timmons has been raising the alarm on the need to move now on preserving and extending the 2017 tax reforms in the face of the uncertainty and price pressures.

The bottom line: “Building things in America only works if we can sell them around the world,” said Timmons. He added this morning: “That’s why we’re urging President Trump and Congress to provide greater predictability with a phase-in period for manufacturers to adjust to new trade realities, while also establishing clear exemptions for critical inputs, enabling reciprocity in manufacturing trade.”

• “President Trump can make American manufacturing greater than ever before by negotiating a ‘zero for zero’ tariffs manufacturing trade deal with our major trading partners,” Timmons said.

Developing: This morning on , Commerce Secretary��Howard Lutnick hinted publicly that he has heard the 51�Թ��� and the industry’s urging for relief from tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports for products that comply with the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement—a signature achievement of President Trump’s first term.

The 51�Թ��� kept up a breakneck pace on the third day of its 2025 Competing to Win Tour, with the Manufacturing Institute delivering the first-ever at Drake State Community and Technical College in Huntsville, Alabama, before an audience of students, faculty, manufacturers and local and state officials.
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Opportunity—for all: Taking the stage to give the MI’s assessment of the manufacturing worker base in 2025, Carolyn Lee, president of the Manufacturing Institute, the 51�Թ���’s 501(c)3 workforce development and education affiliate, homed in on the theme of opportunity.

• “Manufacturing is not just about innovation and economic growth; it’s about opportunity. It’s about ensuring that every community, every aspiring maker, builder and creator—no matter their background—can have access to the skills, training and careers that will define the future.”
• But because the industry stands at a crossroads, part of that opportunity today is to help manufacturing maintain its momentum, Lee said, echoing a theme of 51�Թ��� President and CEO Jay Timmons’ on Tuesday.

Finest hours ahead: Lee was joined at the event by Rep. Dale Strong (R-AL), who spoke about the strength of Alabama’s manufacturing sector.

• “I think we’ve proven here in Alabama, and North Alabama especially, advanced manufacturing is part of our DNA,” he said. “You look at the jobs that we’ve brought in the last 10 or 15 years. You start with GE Aviation, Polaris, Toyota Motor Manufacturing, Mazda Toyota. We’ve proven that the Alabama workforce has the ability. I think our finest hours are still ahead.”

A world-changing job: Timmons echoed that sentiment. “You’re stepping into one of the most important and innovative fields in the world,” he told the Drake State students.

• “The products, the materials, the technologies that you will help create, they won’t just be used in your hometown or even all across our country. They’re going to help change economies … They’re going to strengthen the very foundation of America’s security and prosperity.”

A shortfall: But manufacturing today faces an immense challenge, Lee told the crowd: “a structural workforce deficit.”

• “[I]f we don’t act boldly, the U.S. faces a shortfall of 1.9 million manufacturing workers by 2033; 3.8 million positions will open up, but nearly half could go unfilled. That’s not just a workforce issue—it’s an economic and national security issue.”
• That’s despite the average annual earnings—including pay and benefits—for a manufacturing employee coming in at more than $102,000.
• The dearth of workers in the sector is driven by both retirements and growth.

How to overcome it: “[W]e have to inspire more Americans to see themselves in manufacturing,” Lee said. “That starts early, with programs that spark curiosity and excitement for careers in our industry. And when I say early, I mean as young as 9 or 10 years old—because today’s 4th graders will graduate in 2033 and may be our future team members.”

• To this end, the MI partners each year with manufacturers on MFG Day, which kicks off a full month of events at which companies show young people, students and job seekers what a modern manufacturing career looks like.
• The MI, with the support of Honda, has also created a new interactive experience to interest youngsters in the industry: “,” which combines elements of board games and popular fantasy and storytelling activities.

The FAME factor: Under the MI’s auspices, the Federation for Advanced Manufacturing Education USA, a workforce program started by Toyota in 2010 and entrusted to the MI in 2019, has grown considerably. (Drake State is home to one of the public–private partnership’s newest chapters.)

• FAME participants attend classes and earn while they learn in hands-on apprenticeships with manufacturers.
• The program—in which a participant can easily earn more than $30,000 over two years—has become “the gold standard for how employers, educators and communities should work together” on manufacturing workforce training, Lee said.

Other efforts: The MI helps manufacturers actively recruit groups often overlooked in manufacturing hiring initiatives: veterans, women and previously incarcerated individuals.

• The program helps connect former members of the military with manufacturing jobs. Walmart provides crucial funding to the program; in 2022, it gave a six-figure to fund the development of a model that translates skills acquired in the military to ones recognized by manufacturing employers.
• The is the nation’s premier program aimed at closing the gender gap in the sector.
• “The MI is helping manufacturers develop second chance hiring strategies, recognizing that talent is talent—and potential shouldn’t be wasted,” Lee said to the audience.

Working together: “As we look ahead, manufacturers, educators and policymakers must work together to strengthen our talent pipeline,” Lee and Drake State Community and Technical College President Dr. Patricia G. Sims wrote in a Thursday for the Alabama Political Reporter.��
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Manufacturing in Alabama: On Thursday afternoon, the 51�Թ��� and MI contingent continued its manufacturing-facility tour, visiting Toyota Motor Manufacturing Alabama and Bruderer Machinery—both in Huntsville—and Milo’s Tea Company in Bessemer.

• “I plan on making my career here,” said Drew, a 2024 FAME graduate, during a discussion before a tour of the shop floor. Drew is now working as a maintenance team member at Toyota Alabama. The talk focused on how the FAME program prepared participants for a rewarding career in auto manufacturing. Toyota Alabama—2,400-plus team members strong—has created 10,000 jobs in the state.
• Lee visited Bruderer Machinery, a leading manufacturer of high-precision stamping presses that provides solutions for the automotive, aerospace and electronics industries. Bruderer is also a key supporter of the FAME apprenticeship model.
• Timmons and the rest of the 51�Թ��� team finished the day at , the fastest-growing tea company in America. The family-owned business, founded by CEO Tricia Wallwork’s grandparents Milo and Bea Carlton, has won 40% of the refrigerated iced tea market share in the U.S. “This reminded me of my grandmother’s iced tea,” said Timmons. “You could see how special Milo’s is by just walking the shop floor and seeing the smiles and camaraderie.”�� ��

The rose 2.2 points in October to 93.7, marking the 34th consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. Meanwhile, the Uncertainty Index rose seven points to 110, the highest reading ever recorded. This high level of uncertainty is making small business owners hesitant to invest in capital and inventory, with 54% of owners reporting capital outlays in October and a net 9% of owners reporting inventory reductions compared to gains. However, uncertainty is expected to fall with the election over.

Although price increases have slowed in recent months, inflation is the top concern for small business owners, with 23% identifying higher input and labor costs as their primary issue. Filling job openings continues to be a top issue for small businesses. In October, 35% of small business owners reported jobs they could not fill, up 1% from September.

A net 26% of small business owners planned price hikes in October, up 1% from the month prior. A net 31% of small business owners reported raising compensation, down one point from September and the lowest reading since April 2021. Following the Federal Reserve’s September interest rate cut,��a net 5% of owners reported paying a higher rate on their most recent loan, down 7 points from September and the lowest reading since January 2022. Profitability remained under pressure, mainly due to weaker sales.

The outlook for general business conditions remains negative but has improved significantly from earlier in the year. While small business owners are still facing unprecedented economic adversity, owners remain hopeful as they head toward the holiday season.

state grew significantly across most indices in November, with the headline general business conditions index rising 43.1 points to 31.2, the highest reading since December 2021. The new orders index increased to 28.0, rising 38.2 points, and the shipments index grew 35.2 points to 32.5, reflecting sharp increases in both. Unfilled orders fell to -10.3, while inventories improved from -7.5 to 1.0. Delivery times lengthened slightly, while supply worsened to -4.1.

Despite the sharp increase in business activity, employment decreased slightly, with the index for the number of employees falling to 0.9 from 4.1. The average employee workweek��improved some, from 4.7 to 6.1, signaling a slight increase in hours worked. Input and selling price diverged, as reflected in the prices paid index falling 1.2 points to 27.8 and the prices received index moving up 1.6 points to 12.4, which means some cost improvement for manufacturers that have been operating in a weakened pricing environment.

Although expectations for future business activity decreased 5.5 points to 33.2 after the previous month’s index hit a multiyear high (38.7), firms continue to feel optimistic about the future. The capital spending index also continued to increase, rising 3.7 points to 13.4 in November.