Economic Data and Growth
Case-Shiller Signals a Broader Housing Price Slowdown as Annual Gains Fade Further
In February, the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index recorded a 0.7% annual gain, down from the 0.8% rise in January. The 10-City Composite increased 1.5%, down from 1.7% the previous month, while the 20-City Composite rose 0.9% year-over-year, down from 1.2% in January. Among the 20 cities, Chicago posted the highest …
Consumer Confidence Improves as Outlook Brightens Despite a Softer Present View
Consumer confidence inched up 0.6 points in April to 92.8. Among its components, the Present Situation Index contracted while the Expectations Index improved as customers’ concerns regarding the present situation worsened and concerns about the future eased. The Present Situation Index, reflecting current business and labor market conditions, edged down 0.3 points to 123.8. Meanwhile, …
Texas Factory Output Rebounds as Production and Shipments Strengthen
In April, Texas factory activity expanded at a faster pace after weakening the prior month. The production index increased from 6.8 to 19.0, climbing well above the series average of 9.6. The new orders index stepped up 3.8 points to 9.9, while the capacity utilization index jumped 12.6 points to 19.8, both above the series …
Fifth District Factory Activity Improves, but Confidence and Investment Plans Fade
Manufacturing activity in the Fifth District rose in April after staying the same in March, with the composite manufacturing index increasing from 0 to 3. At the same time, the local business conditions index advanced from -5 to 10 in April. Despite an improvement in the headline index in April, manufacturers are less optimistic about …
Manufacturing PMI Climbs Amid Middle East Disruptions
The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 54.5 in April, up from the March reading of 52.3. New orders grew at the fastest pace in four years in April, but exports declined for the 11th consecutive month as tariffs and the conflict in the Middle East drove up costs and hindered foreign demand. Meanwhile, input and …
Fed Holds Rates Amid Rare Four-Way Dissent and Powell’s Final Presser
As anticipated, the Federal Open Market Committee maintained its interest rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% at its April meeting. On the other hand, one FOMC member—Stephen Miran—dissented from the action, preferring to lower the target range by 25 basis points. In a change to its previous statement, the FOMC noted that inflation remains elevated, in …
Factory Activity Stays in Expansion as Hiring Weakens and Cost Headwinds Persist
In April, the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded for the fourth consecutive month and at the same pace as the prior month, with the ISM Manufacturing® PMI remaining at 52.7% from March. Certain demand indicators, such as the New Orders and Backlog of Orders indexes, stayed in expansion territory, while the New Export Orders Index remained …
First-Quarter GDP Picks Up as Investment Leads Growth
Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.0% in the first quarter of 2026, up from a 0.5% rise in the fourth quarter but slightly below consensus expectations. The increase in GDP during the first quarter mostly reflected increases in investment, consumer spending on services, exports and government spending, which were partially offset by …
Tenth District Factories Stay in Expansion Territory Despite Input Costs Climbing
Manufacturing activity grew at a slightly slower pace in the Tenth District in April, with the month-over-month composite index edging down to 10 in April from 11 in March. On the other hand, expectations for future activity improved 2 points to 18. The month-over-month activity loss was due to a decline in durable manufacturing, while …
Flash Manufacturing PMI Hits a Four-Year High as Domestic Demand Strenghtens
The S&P Global Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI increased from 52.3 to 54.0 in April, a 47-month high. This continues the trend of nine consecutive months of growth. Factory production and new order growth improved in April, with both experiencing their strongest expansion since 2022. Meanwhile, export orders declined after stagnating the prior month as a …