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Manufacturing activity in New York state expanded in May, with the headline business conditions index rising 8.6 points to 19.6, the highest reading since April 2022. The new orders index increased 3.4 points to 22.7, while the shipments index declined 1.3 points to 18.9, both remaining at high rates of growth for the second consecutive month. Unfilled orders decreased 4.2 points to 4.9, while inventories moved up 4.6 points to 9.7, indicating business inventories are growing at a faster pace. Delivery times lengthened to a four-year high, climbing 8.3 points to 20.4, and supply availability worsened slightly, edging down 0.6 points to -10.7.

Employment increased at a slower rate in May, with the index for the number of employees falling 1.5 points to 8.3. At the same time, the average employee workweek declined to 11.5 from 13.7, signaling a smaller increase in hours worked in May. The prices paid index jumped 11.6 points to 62.6, while the prices received index soared 10.0 points to 31.8, reflecting the fastest pace of increase in both prices paid and prices received since 2022.

In May, firms’ optimism regarding the future improved notably, with the future business activity index rising 13.9 points to 33.5. In the next six months, new orders are expected to rise at a faster pace compared to the prior month at 30.1. The future employment index moved up 2.5 points to 20.6, suggesting an anticipated faster pace of employment growth over the next six months. Meanwhile, input and selling price expectations are forecasted to increase at a faster pace, rising from 61.6 to 62.1 and from 38.6 to 43.6, respectively. Furthermore, capital spending plans strengthened in May, increasing from 13.1 to 15.5.

U.S. import prices increased 1.9% in April, after rising 0.9% in March, with higher fuel and nonfuel prices driving the increase. Over the year, import prices advanced 4.2% in April, the largest 12-month increase since October 2022. Meanwhile, U.S. export prices stepped up 3.3% in April, driven by higher prices for nonagricultural and agricultural exports. Over the past year, export prices rose 8.8%, the largest over-the-year increase since September 2022.

In April, U.S. import prices for manufacturing moved up 3.5% over the year, although about half of the industry experienced price decreases. Petroleum and coal products manufacturing experienced the most significant over-the-year U.S. import price increase in April, surging 38.4%. On the other hand, the greatest yearly decline in U.S. import prices occurred in beverage and tobacco product manufacturing, which fell 11.2% from April 2025. Meanwhile, U.S. export prices for manufacturing advanced 6.9% over the year, with petroleum and coal products manufacturing exhibiting the largest rise (30.8%).

Fuel import prices climbed 16.3% in April, the largest monthly rise since March 2022, after increasing 10.0% in March. Higher prices for petroleum more than offset lower prices for natural gas. Import prices for petroleum and petroleum products jumped 19.0% in April. At the same time, prices for fuel imports surged 20.0% from April 2025. Meanwhile, natural gas prices plummeted 22.1% in April but edged up 0.1% over the year.

Nonfuel import prices increased 0.8% in April, after ticking up 0.2% in March. Higher prices for capital goods, nonfuel industrial supplies and materials, consumer goods and foods, feeds and beverages drove the increase. The price index grew 2.9% over the past year, the largest over-the-year gain since October 2022.

After rising 0.6% in March, agricultural export prices rose 1.6% in April. Over the past 12 months, agricultural exports advanced 4.3%, driven primarily by higher prices for soybeans and meat. Meanwhile, nonagricultural exports stepped up 3.4% in April. Higher prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials, capital goods and consumer goods more than offset lower prices for automotive vehicles, parts and engines. Over the past year, nonagricultural export prices climbed 9.3%.

Industrial production rose 0.7% in April, while manufacturing output advanced 0.6% after ticking up 0.1% in March. At 97.9% of its 2017 average, manufacturing production increased 1.3% from April 2025. Capacity utilization for manufacturing was 75.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from March and 1.1% over the past year. Capacity utilization remained 2.4 percentage points below its long-term average from 1972 to 2025.

In April, production for most major market groups improved. Consumer goods production climbed 0.9%, while business equipment output jumped 1.5%. The growth in consumer durables (up 1.2%) was led by the output of automotive products rising 2.2%. Meanwhile, the index for consumer nondurables moved up 0.9%, led by an increase in the index for energy (up 2.6%). Among business equipment, the 4.2% jump in transit equipment output led the advance. At the same time, the index for materials rose 0.5%, while the index for construction supplies stayed the same and the index for business supplies ticked up 0.3%.

Durable goods manufacturing surged 1.2% in April and 3.2% from the year prior. The largest monthly gain occurred in motor vehicles and parts (up 3.7%), while furniture and related products registered the largest decline (down 1.8%). Meanwhile, led by a 2.2% decrease in apparel and leather production, nondurable manufacturing edged down 0.1% in April and 0.6% from April 2025.

The Producer Price Index for final demand (also known as wholesale prices) rose 1.4% over the month in April, up from the 0.7% increase in March. Over the year, producer prices jumped 6.0%, up from 4.3% in March and the largest 12-month increase since December 2022. Meanwhile, prices for final demand excluding foods, energy and trade services advanced 0.6% over the month in April after ticking up 0.2% in March. Prices for these goods climbed 4.4% from April 2025, the largest yearly increase since February 2023.

Within final demand, prices for services jumped 1.2% in April, the largest monthly increase since March 2022, after inching up 0.2% in March. Meanwhile, prices for goods soared 2.0% in April, after moving up 1.9% in March. Within the final demand services index, margins for machinery and equipment wholesaling rose 3.5%, a major factor in the monthly advance for this index. Within the final demand goods index, prices for gasoline surged 15.6%, accounting for over 40% of the April increase. At the same time, prices for nonferrous metals fell 0.3% from March but were still up 35.6% from April 2025.

Prices for processed goods for intermediate demand rose 2.7% in April, the sixth consecutive increase, after moving up 2.8% in March. Within the index, prices for diesel fuel jumped 12.6%, accounting for nearly a quarter of the April increase, after soaring 42.1% in March. Meanwhile, prices for primary nonferrous metals and secondary nonferrous metals were up 82.1% and 38.1% year-over-year, respectively. Over the year, prices for processed goods for intermediate demand rose 9.4%, the largest annual increase since October 2022.

Meanwhile, prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand climbed 4.1% in April, the sixth straight advance, after increasing 1.8% in March. Nearly 75% of the monthly rise was attributed to an 11.3% surge in crude petroleum prices, which are up 61.8% over the year. In contrast, prices for nonferrous scrap fell 4.4% in April but rose 27.9% from April 2025. Over the year, prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand soared 20.9% after moving up 12.5% in March.

In April, consumer prices increased 0.6% from March and 3.8% over the year, up from the 3.3% annual rise in March and the greatest over-the-year increase since May 2023. Core CPI, which excludes more volatile energy and food prices, rose 0.4% from March and 2.8% over the year, up slightly from the 2.6% 12-month increase the month prior.

Energy costs climbed 3.8% over the month in April, after jumping 10.9% in March. Over the year, energy costs surged 17.9%, after increasing 12.5% year-over-year in March. Within the energy index, gasoline prices rose 5.4% in April and 28.4% over the year, while fuel oil prices surged 5.8% month-over-month and 54.3% year-over-year. Meanwhile, electricity prices grew 2.1% in April and 6.1% from April 2025, while natural gas prices edged down 0.1% over the month but were still up 3.0% over the year.

In April, food prices advanced 0.5% over the month and 3.2% over the year, up from the 2.7% year-over-year advance in March. Prices for food at home increased 0.7% from March and 2.9% from April 2025, while prices for food away from home moved up 0.2% month-over-month and 3.6% year-over-year. Of the different food groups, beef and veal, coffee and fresh vegetables rose at the fastest pace, surging 14.8%, 18.5% and 11.5% over the year, respectively.

The shelter index climbed 0.6% from March and 3.3% over the year, up from the 3.0% annual gain in March. Meanwhile, prices for used cars and trucks stayed the same over the month but declined 2.7% over the year, while new vehicle prices ticked down 0.2% over the month but inched up 0.2% from April 2025. Relatedly, prices for motor vehicle maintenance and repair fell 0.2% month-over-month but advanced 5.1% year-over-year.

The headline inflation rate is still well above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2.0% and continues to rise from its 2025 lows, with increased pressure from the war in the Middle East. Federal Reserve officials held their interest rate target steady at their April meeting, and markets that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep its interest rate target unchanged again at the meeting next month as risks to the Federal Reserve’s inflation mandate rise.

In April, growth in global manufacturing activity strengthened from March, increasing from 51.3 to 52.6. Output and new orders both grew as the rate of manufacturing production growth hit a nearly five-year high. Meanwhile, lead times continued to slow, lengthening to the greatest extent since August 2022. Employment declined slightly for the second consecutive month, and inventory levels rose as firms prepared for anticipated supply chain disruptions and further cost increases.

Taiwan, Japan, Ireland and India had the highest PMI readings in April. On the other hand, Mexico, Russia and Turkey were some of the larger nations to register declines in activity. The accelerating growth in manufacturing production occurred across consumer, intermediate and investment goods.

Meanwhile, input and output price pressures continued to surge as output prices rose at the sharpest rate since June 2022. At the same time, business optimism remained depressed amid rising cost pressures and supply chain disruptions. Geopolitical uncertainty continued to weigh on sentiment as input costs rose at one of the fastest rates in the 28-year survey history.

Job openings for manufacturing rose by 19,000 to 462,000 in March. At the same time, the February job openings level of 443,000 was revised upward from 439,000 in the previous report. Nondurable goods job openings in March increased 10,000 to 162,000, while durable goods job openings moved up 9,000 to 300,000. The manufacturing job openings rate inched up to 3.5% from 3.4% in February and 3.0% the previous year. The rate for nondurable goods manufacturing ticked up 0.2 percentage points to 3.3% and 0.1 percentage point to 3.7% for durable goods manufacturing.

In the larger economy, the number of job openings stayed relatively stable at 6.9 million, a decline of just 56,000 from February and 86,000 from the previous year. The job openings rate edged down to 4.1% from 4.2% in both February and March 2025. This data reflects an overall labor market that has eased back to pre-pandemic levels, but remains relatively tight from a historical perspective.

The number of hires in the overall economy jumped 655,000 to 5.6 million in March and 221,000 from the previous year. The hires rate for the overall economy increased 0.4 percentage points in March to 3.5%. Meanwhile, the hires rate for manufacturing climbed to 2.5% from 2.2% in February and 2.4% in March 2025. The hires rate for durable goods ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 2.1%, while the hires rate for nondurable goods jumped 0.5 percentage points to 3.1%.

In the larger economy, total separations, which include quits, layoffs, discharges and other separations, rose 356,000 from February to 5.4 million and 90,000 from the previous year. The total separations rate inched up 0.2 percentage points to 3.4% for the overall economy but edged down 0.1 percentage point for manufacturing to 2.2%, down from 2.5% the year prior. Within that rate, layoffs and discharges decreased by 9,000 in March for manufacturing, while quits rose by 3,000. The quit and layoff rates continued to remain lower for manufacturing than the total nonfarm sector.

New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.5% in March after ticking up 0.3% in February. Meanwhile, new orders for manufactured goods rose 3.7% over the year. When excluding transportation, new orders moved up 1.6% over the month and 3.4% year-over-year in March. Orders for durable goods advanced 0.8%, following a 1.2% decline in February. Year to date, durable goods orders jumped 6.1%. Meanwhile, nondurable goods increased 2.1% after stepping up 1.9% in February. At the same time, nondurable goods orders grew 1.2% over the year.

In March, the largest monthly increase occurred in ships and boats, which surged 30.9% after decreasing 12.8% in February. The largest decline occurred in nondefense aircraft and parts, which plummeted 21.1% after plunging 33.3% the prior month. The largest over-the-year changes occurred in ships and boats (up 38.2%) and nondefense aircraft and parts (down 12.5%).

Factory shipments rose 1.4% in March, after increasing 1.7% in February. Shipments grew 4.3% over the year. Shipments excluding transportation stepped up 1.6% in March, following a 1.7% uptick the previous month. Shipments for durable goods moved up 0.7% in March, following a 1.6% rise in February, and are up 7.4% year to date. Meanwhile, nondurable goods shipments increased 2.1%, after advancing 1.9% the prior month, and are up 1.2% year to date.

Unfilled orders for all manufacturing industries inched up 0.1% in March, after increasing by the same percentage in February. Unfilled orders over the year jumped 9.4%. Inventories rose 0.6% month-over-month and 1.3% year-over-year. The inventories-to-shipments ratio edged down from 1.52 in February to 1.51 in March. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio for durable goods moved down to 6.88 in March from 6.92 in February.

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 115,000 in April, coming in above expectations. Meanwhile, February’s job loss was revised upward by 23,000 to a loss of 156,000 jobs, while March’s job gain was revised upward by 7,000 to a gain of 185,000 jobs. The 12-month average stands at 21,000 job gains per month. Healthcare and social assistance continues to exhibit the most significant job gains, adding 53,900 jobs in April. At the same time, the unemployment rate stayed the same from March at 4.3%, while the labor force participation rate ticked down 0.1 percentage point to 61.8% and is down from 62.6% in April 2025.

Manufacturing employment edged down by 2,000 in April after increasing by 15,000 in March. On the other hand, the collective job gains in February and March of 9,000 were revised upward by 7,000 jobs to an increase of 16,000 jobs. Manufacturing employment is down 73,000 over the year. Durable goods manufacturing employment inched up by 2,000 in April, while nondurable goods employment fell by 4,000. The most significant gain in manufacturing in April occurred in chemical manufacturing, which added 2,400 jobs over the month. Meanwhile, the most significant loss occurred in transportation equipment manufacturing, which shed 3,600 jobs over the month.

The employment-population ratio edged down 0.1 percentage point from March to 59.1% in April and is down 0.9 percentage points from a year ago. Meanwhile, employed persons who are part-time workers for economic reasons rose by 445,000 from March to 4.9 million in April and are up from 4.7 million in April 2025. Native-born employment is up 341,000 from March but down 1,134,000 over the year. Meanwhile, foreign-born employment is down 326,000 over the month and 155,000 over the year. At the same time, the native-born unemployment rate is up 0.2 percentage points over the year to 4.1% in April, while the foreign-born unemployment rate is up 0.1 percentage point to 3.7%.

Average hourly earnings for all private nonfarm payroll employees rose 0.2%, or 6 cents, reaching $37.41. Over the past year, earnings have grown 3.6%. The average workweek for all employees inched up by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours and ticked up by the same amount to 40.4 hours for manufacturing employees.

Building permits fell 10.8% in March and 7.4% over the year. Permits for single-family homes in March decreased 3.8% and 7.9% over the year. At the same time, permits for buildings with five or more units plummeted 23.5% from February and 5.3% over the year.

In March, housing starts jumped 10.8% from February and the same percentage over the year. Starts for single-family homes climbed 9.7% from February and 8.9% over the year. Meanwhile, starts for buildings with five or more units surged 9.6% over the month and 13.5% over the year.

Housing completions ticked up 0.1% over the month but fell 12.8% over the year. Single-family home completions declined 4.8% from February and 14.5% from March 2025. At the same time, completions for buildings with five or more units increased 10.2% over the month but decreased 9.1% from one year ago.