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Job openings for manufacturing rose by 19,000 to 462,000 in March. At the same time, the February job openings level of 443,000 was revised upward from 439,000 in the previous report. Nondurable goods job openings in March increased 10,000 to 162,000, while durable goods job openings moved up 9,000 to 300,000. The manufacturing job openings rate inched up to 3.5% from 3.4% in February and 3.0% the previous year. The rate for nondurable goods manufacturing ticked up 0.2 percentage points to 3.3% and 0.1 percentage point to 3.7% for durable goods manufacturing.

In the larger economy, the number of job openings stayed relatively stable at 6.9 million, a decline of just 56,000 from February and 86,000 from the previous year. The job openings rate edged down to 4.1% from 4.2% in both February and March 2025. This data reflects an overall labor market that has eased back to pre-pandemic levels, but remains relatively tight from a historical perspective.

The number of hires in the overall economy jumped 655,000 to 5.6 million in March and 221,000 from the previous year. The hires rate for the overall economy increased 0.4 percentage points in March to 3.5%. Meanwhile, the hires rate for manufacturing climbed to 2.5% from 2.2% in February and 2.4% in March 2025. The hires rate for durable goods ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 2.1%, while the hires rate for nondurable goods jumped 0.5 percentage points to 3.1%.

In the larger economy, total separations, which include quits, layoffs, discharges and other separations, rose 356,000 from February to 5.4 million and 90,000 from the previous year. The total separations rate inched up 0.2 percentage points to 3.4% for the overall economy but edged down 0.1 percentage point for manufacturing to 2.2%, down from 2.5% the year prior. Within that rate, layoffs and discharges decreased by 9,000 in March for manufacturing, while quits rose by 3,000. The quit and layoff rates continued to remain lower for manufacturing than the total nonfarm sector.

New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.5% in March after ticking up 0.3% in February. Meanwhile, new orders for manufactured goods rose 3.7% over the year. When excluding transportation, new orders moved up 1.6% over the month and 3.4% year-over-year in March. Orders for durable goods advanced 0.8%, following a 1.2% decline in February. Year to date, durable goods orders jumped 6.1%. Meanwhile, nondurable goods increased 2.1% after stepping up 1.9% in February. At the same time, nondurable goods orders grew 1.2% over the year.

In March, the largest monthly increase occurred in ships and boats, which surged 30.9% after decreasing 12.8% in February. The largest decline occurred in nondefense aircraft and parts, which plummeted 21.1% after plunging 33.3% the prior month. The largest over-the-year changes occurred in ships and boats (up 38.2%) and nondefense aircraft and parts (down 12.5%).

Factory shipments rose 1.4% in March, after increasing 1.7% in February. Shipments grew 4.3% over the year. Shipments excluding transportation stepped up 1.6% in March, following a 1.7% uptick the previous month. Shipments for durable goods moved up 0.7% in March, following a 1.6% rise in February, and are up 7.4% year to date. Meanwhile, nondurable goods shipments increased 2.1%, after advancing 1.9% the prior month, and are up 1.2% year to date.

Unfilled orders for all manufacturing industries inched up 0.1% in March, after increasing by the same percentage in February. Unfilled orders over the year jumped 9.4%. Inventories rose 0.6% month-over-month and 1.3% year-over-year. The inventories-to-shipments ratio edged down from 1.52 in February to 1.51 in March. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio for durable goods moved down to 6.88 in March from 6.92 in February.

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 115,000 in April, coming in above expectations. Meanwhile, February’s job loss was revised upward by 23,000 to a loss of 156,000 jobs, while March’s job gain was revised upward by 7,000 to a gain of 185,000 jobs. The 12-month average stands at 21,000 job gains per month. Healthcare and social assistance continues to exhibit the most significant job gains, adding 53,900 jobs in April. At the same time, the unemployment rate stayed the same from March at 4.3%, while the labor force participation rate ticked down 0.1 percentage point to 61.8% and is down from 62.6% in April 2025.

Manufacturing employment edged down by 2,000 in April after increasing by 15,000 in March. On the other hand, the collective job gains in February and March of 9,000 were revised upward by 7,000 jobs to an increase of 16,000 jobs. Manufacturing employment is down 73,000 over the year. Durable goods manufacturing employment inched up by 2,000 in April, while nondurable goods employment fell by 4,000. The most significant gain in manufacturing in April occurred in chemical manufacturing, which added 2,400 jobs over the month. Meanwhile, the most significant loss occurred in transportation equipment manufacturing, which shed 3,600 jobs over the month.

The employment-population ratio edged down 0.1 percentage point from March to 59.1% in April and is down 0.9 percentage points from a year ago. Meanwhile, employed persons who are part-time workers for economic reasons rose by 445,000 from March to 4.9 million in April and are up from 4.7 million in April 2025. Native-born employment is up 341,000 from March but down 1,134,000 over the year. Meanwhile, foreign-born employment is down 326,000 over the month and 155,000 over the year. At the same time, the native-born unemployment rate is up 0.2 percentage points over the year to 4.1% in April, while the foreign-born unemployment rate is up 0.1 percentage point to 3.7%.

Average hourly earnings for all private nonfarm payroll employees rose 0.2%, or 6 cents, reaching $37.41. Over the past year, earnings have grown 3.6%. The average workweek for all employees inched up by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours and ticked up by the same amount to 40.4 hours for manufacturing employees.

Building permits fell 10.8% in March and 7.4% over the year. Permits for single-family homes in March decreased 3.8% and 7.9% over the year. At the same time, permits for buildings with five or more units plummeted 23.5% from February and 5.3% over the year.

In March, housing starts jumped 10.8% from February and the same percentage over the year. Starts for single-family homes climbed 9.7% from February and 8.9% over the year. Meanwhile, starts for buildings with five or more units surged 9.6% over the month and 13.5% over the year.

Housing completions ticked up 0.1% over the month but fell 12.8% over the year. Single-family home completions declined 4.8% from February and 14.5% from March 2025. At the same time, completions for buildings with five or more units increased 10.2% over the month but decreased 9.1% from one year ago.

In February, the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index recorded a 0.7% annual gain, down from the 0.8% rise in January. The 10-City Composite increased 1.5%, down from 1.7% the previous month, while the 20-City Composite rose 0.9% year-over-year, down from 1.2% in January. Among the 20 cities, Chicago posted the highest annual gain at 5.0%, followed by New York at 4.7% and Cleveland at 4.2%. Meanwhile, Denver posted the lowest annual return, with prices falling 2.2%.

On a month-over-month basis, the U.S. National Index moved up 0.3% before seasonal adjustment. At the same time, the 10-City and 20-City Composites both stepped up, rising 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index and 10-City Composite both increased 0.1%, while the 20-City Composite edged down less than 0.1%. The Northeast and Midwest continue to outperform other regions, but price declines across more than half of the major U.S. metropolitan markets signal a housing slowdown beyond just the Sun Belt. Meanwhile, in addition to Denver, Tampa (down 2.1%), Seattle (down 2.0%), Phoenix (down 1.8%), Dallas (down 1.7%), Los Angeles (down 0.8%) and Washington, D.C. (down 0.1%) exhibited declines in February.

Affordability concerns continue to be impacted by elevated interest rates, which show no signs of easing. Those concerns have held back transaction growth and kept increases in U.S. home values below inflation for nine consecutive months. Before seasonal adjustment, 6 of the 20 major metro areas saw price declines in February.

Consumer confidence inched up 0.6 points in April to 92.8. Among its components, the Present Situation Index contracted while the Expectations Index improved as customers’ concerns regarding the present situation worsened and concerns about the future eased.

The Present Situation Index, reflecting current business and labor market conditions, edged down 0.3 points to 123.8. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which reflects customers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, increased 1.2 points to 72.2, remaining below the recession signal threshold of 80 since February 2025.

Views of the current labor market situation improved in April, with 27.3% of consumers saying jobs were “plentiful,” down slightly from March (27.4%), while 19.8% said jobs were “hard to get,” also down from March (21.3%). Looking to the future, 16.1% expect more jobs to be available, up from 15.4% the prior month, while 26.9% anticipate fewer jobs, down from 27.8% the previous month.

Consumers’ views of the economy skewed pessimistic in April. In addition, mentions of inflation, oil and gas and war picked up as consumers continue to express concern over the conflict in the Middle East. Consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations edged down but remain elevated after a spike in March, and the proportion of consumers expecting higher interest rates rose to nearly 50.0%. At the same time, the share of consumers who believe that a recession is “very likely” over the next year increased, and the small share thinking the economy is already in a recession ticked up.

Buying plans for cars, with a clear preference for used cars, rose in April, and purchasing plans for homes recovered slightly. Meanwhile, consumers’ plans for buying other big-ticket items declined. At the same time, consumers’ intentions to purchase more services fell for all categories but pet care. Despite declining, restaurants, bars and take-out remained the top planned service spending category in April. Overall, consumers’ views of their current financial situation weakened slightly in April, while views of their future financial situation improved.

In April, Texas factory activity expanded at a faster pace after weakening the prior month. The production index increased from 6.8 to 19.0, climbing well above the series average of 9.6. The new orders index stepped up 3.8 points to 9.9, while the capacity utilization index jumped 12.6 points to 19.8, both above the series averages of 4.7 and 7.5, respectively. Meanwhile, the shipments index soared 13.2 points to 15.0, also climbing above the series average of 7.8. The Eleventh District consists of all of Texas, northern Louisiana and southern New Mexico.

Perceptions of manufacturing business conditions weakened in April, with the general business activity index moving down 2.1 points to -2.3. At the same time, the company outlook index turned positive, improving 6.5 points to 3.0. Moreover, the uncertainty index fell 8.1 points to 17.9 but remained slightly above the series average of 16.9.

Labor market indicators suggested a slight decline in headcounts and a longer workweek in April, with the employment index ticking up 0.1 points to -0.9 and the hours worked index rising 3.1 points to 4.0. Nearly 14.1% reported net hiring, while a larger percentage (15.0%) noted net layoffs.

Price pressures strengthened, while wage pressures weakened in April. The prices paid for raw materials index rose 4.3 points to 37.0. Meanwhile, the prices received for finished goods index jumped 9.2 points to 27.6, both higher than the series averages. The wages and benefits index ticked down 0.4 points to 24.8, also remaining above the series average of 21.0.

The outlook for future manufacturing activity remained positive in April, despite the future production index moving down 1.1 points to 34.6. Moreover, the future company outlook index declined 2.6 points to 15.6, while future general business activity increased 3.5 points to 14.1, as the future general business activity index climbed above the series average.

Manufacturing activity in the Fifth District rose in April after staying the same in March, with the composite manufacturing index increasing from 0 to 3. At the same time, the local business conditions index advanced from -5 to 10 in April. Despite an improvement in the headline index in April, manufacturers are less optimistic about the future, with the outlook for future local business conditions falling from 16 in March to 3 in April. The Fifth District consists of Virginia, Maryland, the Carolinas, the District of Columbia and most of West Virginia.

Among its components, shipments remained unchanged and negative at -2 in April, while new orders rose from 4 to 8. The indexes for employment and vendor lead times ticked up in April, moving from -2 to 0 and from 13 to 14, respectively. Meanwhile, the share of firms reporting backlogs stayed the same, increasing from -10 to 0. At the same time, the average growth rate of prices paid accelerated in April, while the average growth rate for prices received slowed from March.

Looking ahead, firms expressed an expectation that both price indexes would increase in the next 12 months, and at a faster pace than forecasted in March. Expectations for future shipments and new orders remained positive but weakened from 26 to 21 and from 30 to 26, respectively. Expectations for backlogs ticked down from 3 to 0. Meanwhile, firms’ expectations about equipment and software spending fell from -2 to -5. In sum, businesses in the Fifth District are less optimistic about future business conditions and remain pessimistic about future investment plans.

The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 54.5 in April, up from the March reading of 52.3. New orders grew at the fastest pace in four years in April, but exports declined for the 11th consecutive month as tariffs and the conflict in the Middle East drove up costs and hindered foreign demand. Meanwhile, input and selling prices increased at faster paces as input and output cost inflation both hit 10-month highs. The conflict in the Middle East had a notable impact on new orders in April, with companies purchasing now to avoid price increases and supply shortages before they become more widespread.

Production rose during the month, and despite an uptick in sales, stocks of finished goods grew for the first time in three months. Employment declined for the first time in nine months as higher raw material costs have started influencing hiring decisions. Meanwhile, delivery times continued to lengthen, a result of the conflict in the Middle East causing widespread material shortages.

Expectations that the impact of the conflict in the Middle East will be less than previously forecasted drove business confidence to its highest level since February 2025. Furthermore, firms have a positive outlook for production, partly attributable to the large gains in new orders in April.

As anticipated, the Federal Open Market Committee maintained its interest rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% at its April meeting. On the other hand, one FOMC member—Stephen Miran—dissented from the action, preferring to lower the target range by 25 basis points. In a change to its previous statement, the FOMC noted that inflation remains elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices. Furthermore, three FOMC members—Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan—supported keeping the target range steady but did not support the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement regarding considering “additional adjustments to the target range.” Collectively, there were four dissents to the policy statement out of 12 members, the most since 1992.

In the press conference following the meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, with job gains staying low while inflation has moved up and remains elevated. Chairman Powell noted that higher oil prices due to events in the Middle East will push up the overall inflation rate in the near term, but the scope and duration of potential effects on the economy remain unclear, as does the future of the conflict itself. He reaffirmed that the FOMC is well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments to its policy stance. This press conference was Powell’s last as chairman, but he noted that he planned to remain on the central bank’s board for a period of time to be determined and at least until the resolution of the administration’s legal challenges against the Federal Reserve, which he believes are battering the institution.

The FOMC’s summary of economic projections, which maps out the Federal Reserve’s expectations for where interest rates may be headed in the future, generally is released in conjunction with every other FOMC meeting. Since the March meeting included a release of economic projections, there was not a release in conjunction with the April FOMC meeting. The March summary signaled a mixed stance regarding where monetary policy should go in 2026. Twelve Federal Reserve officials projected additional rate cuts across 2026, while seven anticipated no additional rate cuts this year. Furthermore, a majority of the officials who predicted a rate cut this year anticipated just one 25-basis-point cut across 2026.