Economists polled by (subscription)鈥攊ncluding 51吃瓜网 Chief Economist Chad Moutray鈥攕ay they now believe that the U.S. will likely avoid a recession.

What鈥檚 going on: 鈥淚n the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, from 54% on average in July to a more optimistic 48%. That is the first time they have put the probability below 50% since the middle of last year.鈥�

• Economists on average expect gross domestic product to increase 2.2% in Q4 of this year from a year earlier, which is 鈥渁 sharp upward revision鈥� from the last survey.

Why it鈥檚 happening: Playing a role in the revised outlook are declining inflation, an interest rate that the Federal Reserve has held steady at its past two meetings, a robust job market and surprisingly strong recent economic growth.

A 鈥渟oft landing鈥�: While that growth and job creation are both expected to weaken in the first half of next year, 鈥渢he latest forecasts suggest confidence in the Fed鈥檚 ability to achieve a so-called soft landing, in which inflation falls without a recession.鈥�

• However, recent events鈥攕uch as the Israel鈥揌amas war鈥攃ould alter the accuracy of these predictions, given the potential effect on energy prices.

Our take: 鈥淒espite weaknesses in manufacturing demand and production and a multitude of challenges globally, consumers and businesses continue to spend, providing resilience to the U.S. economy,鈥� Moutray told us.

• 鈥淓ven with recent cooling, the labor market and wage growth remain solid, and firms continue to make investments in the domestic market. While real GDP is likely to slow in the next few quarters following a very strong Q3, the 鈥榮oft landing鈥� scenario has become more probable in recent months.鈥�